Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | jk
On January 7, 2026, an intelligence indicator that seemed absurd yet had repeatedly proven effective sparked global attention. According to social media monitoring,Pizza orders near the Pentagon have surged by 1,250% in the past 48 hours, a figure nearly double the 700% increase seen before a military action in Venezuela.This is the "Pentagon Pizza Index," a magical indicator, and the implied meaning behind it is that the United States is planning new military actions.
Pizza orders and military intelligence?
The concept of the "Pentagon Pizza Index" can be traced back to 1990, when Frank Meeks, a Domino's Pizza store owner in the Washington, D.C. area, noticed a strange phenomenon: On the evening of August 1, 1990, the CIA ordered a record 21 pizzas. The next day, Iraq invaded Kuwait.
And this pattern repeats itself:
- Before the Panama operation in December 1989, the number of orders surged from 30-35 to over 100;
- During the Clinton impeachment hearings in December 1998 and the Iraqi "Desert Fox" operation, orders for extra cheese pizza at the White House increased by 32%.
The logic behind this is very simple. During high-pressure crisis moments, staff members of the Department of Defense (now called the Department of War, as renamed by Trump) often need to work continuously for 16 to 20 hours. Pizza is cheap, filling, and convenient to deliver, making it the preferred choice for working overtime.
Now, there are already specialized websites online that monitor in real-time six pizza shops near the Pentagon, including Papa John's and Domino's.Today, all the websites are showing crazy multipliers, ranging from 150% to 1250%.
What about before the Venezuela operation?
On the early morning of January 3, 2026, the U.S. military launched a raid in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, and successfully captured President Maduro and his wife.A few hours before the action, a Papa John's pizza restaurant near the Pentagon became unusually busy.
This is not a sudden military operation. Since August 2025, the United States has been amassing a large military force in the Caribbean region: in August, the amphibious assault ship Iwo Jima arrived; in November, the aircraft carrier battle group "Ford" arrived. Altogether, about 15,000 U.S. military personnel were deployed, marking the largest military deployment in the region in generations. As a result, Pentagon staff have been working overtime, which in turn has kept all the nearby pizzerias busy with overtime as well.
A 1250% increase: Who is the next target?
The latest data from this Sunday evening shows that,A Papa John's Pizza 2.3 miles from the Pentagon saw a 476% surge in activity, while a closer Extreme Pizza experienced a 200% increase.The 1250% increase from the lowest point to the highest point set a new historical record.
The Trump administration has stated that this is part of its "Don-roe Doctrine." This is a metaphorical modern version of the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine, essentially an advanced version of MAGA. Trump claimed on Saturday, "American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never again be questioned."
According to the latest statements by Trump and his senior officials, the following countries and regions may become the next targets:
- GreenlandTrump has emphasized that the U.S. needs Greenland to ensure national security. Prediction markets show the probability of the U.S. "gaining control of any part of Greenland" has risen from under 20% last week to 38%. The Danish government is currently in "full crisis mode."
- CubaSecretary Rubio warned that the Cuban government"Got into big trouble"He pointed out that Maduro's bodyguards are Cubans, and 32 Cuban officers died in operations in Venezuela. Trump said, "Cuba looks like it's about to collapse."
- ColombiaTrump directly threatened, "Colombia is also very sick, and it is run by a sick person who likes to produce and sell cocaine to the United States, and he won't be doing that for much longer." When asked whether he considered military action, Trump replied, "That sounds good."
- IranAfter Trump threatened to "狠狠打击" (severely strike) Iran, market predictions indicated a 54% chance that Iran's Supreme Leader, Khamenei, would step down before next year.
How did these countries respond?
Colombian President Petro has shown a firm stance. It was reported that in November 2025, he said, "Brother, if you want to put me in prison, see if you can do it." Recently, he further announced that any commander who prefers the American flag over the Colombian flag will be immediately dismissed from the military.
The Cuban government has observed a two-day national mourning period for the 32 officers who died in Venezuela, clearly showing high vigilance against Rubio's warnings.
Meme and Prediction Markets: Already a Step Ahead
When such events occur, the meme market and prediction market are always the first to react.
On Polymarket, the market for "Trump 'purchases' Greenland before 2027" is highly sensitive.The market probability has increased from about 7% on December 28 to the current 14%, representing an increase of 7 percentage points., the trading volume exceeded $2.1 million. This upward movement also coincided with activities in Venezuela.
The market shows a stepwise probability distribution for a U.S. strike on Cuba: only 2% before January 31, 8% before March 31, but jumps to 20% for a strike executed by year-end. The incident in which Cuba lost 32 officers in Venezuela could become a catalyst for U.S. action.
The market has shown a more aggressive probability curve for "The U.S. will strike Colombia before date xx": 3% by the end of January, 7% by the end of March, and 15% by the end of the year.
Meanwhile, related memes have already emerged, such as Pentagon Pizza Watch (PPW). It features a glowing pizza hovering above a green pentagon, decorated with missile elements.
From the market performance perspective,PPW surges by 78.20% in a week.with a 24-hour trading volume of $114,369 and a market capitalization rank of 3,689.
Here, we strongly recommend reading this article from Odaily: "When War Precedes the News: How Prediction Markets "Priced In" the Capture of Maduro 6 Days in Advance》.