Foreign media report that expectations surrounding SpaceX’s upcoming IPO are heating up. Pricing from over-the-counter derivatives, crypto perpetual contracts, and prediction markets suggests that the company, controlled by Musk and spanning rocketry, satellites, and artificial intelligence, could see strong market demand on its first trading day, exceeding its offering price.
Multi-channel pricing leads to higher valuation
IG International's over-the-counter quote shows that SpaceX's implied enterprise valuation is approximately $2.4 trillion. Based on an IPO pricing of $135 per share, corresponding to a $1.77 trillion valuation, the implied upside exceeds 35%.
The perpetual contract linked to SpaceX on Hyperliquid is trading at approximately $174, implying a valuation of over $2.2 trillion. On Polymarket, traders are betting on a roughly 70% probability that its market capitalization at first-day closing will exceed $2 trillion.
- IG's implied valuation is approximately $2.4 trillion.
- Hyperliquid corresponds to a valuation of over $2.2 trillion
- Polymarket gives a approximately 70% probability
The article suggests that this pricing reflects strong market enthusiasm for space infrastructure and AI assets. A strong first-day performance could also serve as a valuation reference for subsequent major tech IPOs, such as those of OpenAI and Anthropic.
Asian funds shift to alternative channels
The article states that, despite strong subscription interest, most individual investors in Asia cannot directly participate in this IPO. Except for Japan and Australia, retail investors in most Asian markets still lack direct access to subscribe.
In this scenario, some funds shifted to supply chain companies, space-themed ETFs, and funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index, aiming to benefit from the post-listing momentum through related assets. The crypto market also emerged as an alternative entry point, with perpetual contracts and structured derivatives attracting investors unable to access the primary market.
Analysts say this demand goes beyond ordinary IPO inquiries, resembling investors seeking any possible avenue to participate before listing. For certain regional funds, the secondary and derivatives markets are taking on the role traditionally fulfilled by IPO allocations.
Historical drawdown risk continues to be frequently mentioned.
Reuters columnist Jamie McGeever noted in his commentary that initial hype does not guarantee stable mid-term performance. Historical experience with major tech IPOs shows that early price gains are often accompanied by subsequent pullbacks, and retail investors are more vulnerable to volatility during periods of high attention.
A Truist Advisory Services study of 30 large tech IPOs over the past 15 years found that all of these companies experienced double-digit declines within 12 months of their first-day closing price, with an average drawdown of 55%. The article also notes that approximately 20% of SpaceX’s shares will be allocated to retail investors, exceeding the typical allocation in large IPOs, exposing individual investors more directly to price volatility.
- The sample consists of 30 large technology IPOs.
- Average drawdown over the 12 months following the first day: 55%
- SpaceX's retail allocation ratio is approximately 20%.
The article also notes that the underwriters’ forward-looking revenue projections for the company are quite aggressive, and the employee share lock-up arrangements are more lenient than usual. If insider selling occurs after the listing without sufficient new buying demand, the risk of downward pressure on the stock price may increase.
Additional information: The original text is a compilation of foreign media commentary and market observations, primarily based on historical statistical data cited by IG International, Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Reuters columnists.