Mini Program: Daily Investment Bank / Institutional Insights Summary
Overseas
1. Goldman Sachs: Lowers 2024 Brent crude oil price forecast to $80 per barrel
Goldman Sachs: Lowered its average Brent crude oil price forecast for 2027 to $80 per barrel due to increased supply and reduced demand. Maintained its Brent crude oil price forecast for Q4 2026 at $90 per barrel.
2. Danish pension fund: Retail investors chasing SpaceX are afraid of missing out
A $25 billion Danish pension fund has blacklisted SpaceX, with its chief investment officer expressing concern over retail investors' strong interest in the company due to valuation and governance risks. He noted that retail investors generally exhibit a fear of missing out, but his team’s analysis concluded that the company’s value is significantly lower than its IPO price.
3. European Central Bank: This week's rate hike was necessary; all options remain on the table for July, and we stand ready to respond again if needed.
ECB Governing Council member Nagel stated that even if the war ends quickly, this week’s rate hike was necessary; the shock is strong and persistent and cannot be simply ignored. All options remain on the table for July, and the central bank stands ready to respond again if needed; rate hikes are necessary due to the growing indirect impact of high energy prices on other prices.
4. Bank of America: The server CPU market size is projected to quadruple to over $170 billion by 2030.
Vivek Arya, an analyst at Bank of America Global Research, recently forecast that the total addressable market (TAM) for server CPUs will surge fourfold from $35 billion in 2025 to over $170 billion by 2030, far exceeding the bank’s prior estimate of $125 billion for the server CPU market in 2030. Arya wrote in the report: “We believe the rise of agent-based AI is a powerful demand accelerator, expanding market opportunities for CPUs and benefiting Intel, AMD, and Arm-based challengers.”
Domestic
1. CICC: The engine driving U.S. dollar liquidity expansion is undergoing a "major shift"
CICC points out that the engine driving U.S. dollar liquidity expansion is undergoing a "major shift." As inflation transitions from latent to visible and with the newly appointed Fed Chair Walsh, who advocates balance sheet reduction, taking office, the exogenous monetary era—driven jointly by Fed balance sheet expansion and fiscal deficits since the pandemic—may be drawing to a close. Meanwhile, endogenous monetary expansion fueled by AI-related capital expenditures has already taken shape—liquidity’s engine is shifting from policy-driven to real-economy-driven. This endogenous monetary expansion not only enhances economic resilience and deepens inflation persistence but also accelerates capital flows away from traditional sectors like real estate and consumption toward technology frontiers offering higher expected returns. In the future, asset performance is likely to continue diverging: assets solely reliant on exogenous liquidity will face pressure, while those representing advanced productive forces stand to benefit from the expansion of endogenous money.
2. CITIC Securities: The ECB is expected to pause rate hikes, leaving limited room for further euro appreciation.
According to a research report from CITIC Securities, the ECB delivered a widely expected 25 bps rate hike in June, lowered its growth forecasts for this year and next, and raised its inflation forecasts for the same periods. Lagarde stated that the rate hike decision was unanimously supported by the governing council, emphasized the necessity of the hike, noted that the neutral rate had not yet been discussed, and projected that inflation would return to target in the second half of 2027, offering limited forward guidance on future policy paths. Derivatives markets currently price in at least one more ECB rate hike this year, but we believe the costs outweigh the benefits of further hikes; we expect the ECB to pause its tightening cycle, with limited upside potential for the euro and support for the U.S. dollar index.
3. CITIC Construction Investment: Demand for computing power and other high-frequency, high-speed applications is growing rapidly, and electronic-grade PTFE is expected to see large-scale adoption.
A research report from CITIC Construction Investment states that demand for high-frequency, high-speed applications such as computing power is growing rapidly, and electronic-grade PTFE is expected to see large-scale adoption. Key characteristics of PTFE include excellent thermal stability, chemical resistance, and dielectric performance. Downstream demand from defense, high-speed server cables, and high-speed circuit boards is all poised for significant growth. As NVIDIA’s new Rubin Ultra server platform approaches mass production, industry participants are actively discussing the potential use of PTFE as an orthogonal backplane material, with domestic company Shengyi Technology actively conducting validation tests. CITIC Construction Investment believes that as demand for high-frequency, high-speed transmission driven by computing infrastructure continues to grow, the downstream applications of PTFE are likely to be redefined.
4. CITIC Securities: The non-farm payroll data has led the market to reprice expectations for the Fed’s policy path, and the Fed may hold rates steady this year.
CITIC Securities noted that the U.S. unemployment rate in May 2026 was 4.3%, in line with expectations; non-farm payroll additions significantly exceeded forecasts, with leisure and hospitality being the primary contributor. Previous figures were revised upward, and the birth-death model contribution was lower than in prior同期 periods, indicating that this non-farm data contained few one-off disturbances. The strong employment demand in May is corroborated by other labor market indicators such as ADP and JOLTS, and the number of S&P 500 companies mentioning layoffs also declined noticeably in May. Supply-side conditions remained generally stable, with the overall labor force participation rate unchanged from the prior reading and a slight increase in prime-age participation. The robust non-farm data prompted markets to reprice the Fed’s policy path; CITIC Securities believes the Fed will hold rates steady for the remainder of the year. Attention should be paid to whether the June FOMC meeting will cancel the release of the dot plot; if canceled, markets may briefly descend into “confusion,” losing a benchmark anchor for pricing the Fed’s rate path this year, and subsequent statements from this year’s voting members will need to be closely monitored.
5. CITIC Securities: The ECB is expected to pause rate hikes, leaving limited room for further euro appreciation.
CITIC Securities noted that the ECB delivered a widely expected 25 bps rate hike in June, lowered its growth forecasts for this year and next, and raised its inflation forecasts for the same periods. Lagarde stated that the rate hike decision was unanimously supported by the governing council, emphasized the necessity of the hike, and indicated that the neutral rate had not yet been discussed. She projected that inflation would return to target in the second half of 2027 but provided limited forward guidance on future policy paths. Derivatives markets currently price in at least one more ECB rate hike this year; however, CITIC Securities believes the drawbacks of another hike outweigh the benefits, expecting the ECB to pause its tightening cycle. Further appreciation of the euro may be limited, while the U.S. dollar index finds support.
6. Huatai Securities: Demand for computing power and models is expected to further expand from training to high-intensity inference scenarios.
Huatai Securities noted that Anthropic released Claude 3.5 Sonnet on June 9, with key highlights including: ① Significant improvement in intelligence, with Sonnet 3.5 now ranking first on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index; ② Continued enhancement of agent capabilities, with markedly improved deliverability in long-duration, multi-step, and complex tasks; ③ Strengthened visual recognition and persistent memory capabilities. For security reasons, Sonnet 3.5 includes safeguards for cybersecurity, biochemistry, and model distillation scenarios, which may trigger the model to fallback to Opus 4.8 upon encountering such requests. Huatai Securities believes that Sonnet 3.5 is expected to further expand the frontier of long-range agent capabilities, accelerate the adoption of office agents, and speed up deployment in high-value B-end use cases, ultimately influencing the domestic market. However, in the short term, frequent fallbacks due to security filters may negatively impact the general consumer user experience. As commercialization accelerates in complex coding, office agents, and multimodal tasks, demand for compute and models is likely to expand beyond training to include high-intensity inference workloads.