BlockBeats news, on June 11, according to CNBC, amid a sustained pullback in gold prices, sentiment in the derivatives market has turned noticeably bearish, with traders increasing bets on further declines; some long-term options are pricing in a potential additional 40% drop in gold prices over the next two years.
Option data for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF shows that during Wednesday’s single-day gold price decline of over 4%, approximately $130 million of the $200 million in option premiums traded were concentrated in put options, while the volume of sold call options remained higher than bought.
The trade structure shows that 8 of the 10 most actively traded options contracts today were puts, with most trades executed at or above the best ask price, indicating active positioning for downside risk.
Since reaching a阶段性 high in February, GLD has declined by approximately 25%, with selling pressure continuing. In specific long-dated contracts, put options expiring in June 2028 with a strike price of $240 have seen active trading, implying a potential downside of about 40% based on current prices, indicating that some investors are betting on the continuation of a medium- to long-term bear market.
On a macro level, market analysis points to multiple factors pressuring gold prices, including portfolio rebalancing by certain central banks and sovereign entities, shifts in geopolitical funding demands, and passive selling triggered by technical stop-losses.
In contrast to physical gold, the mining stock options structure shows a bullish sentiment in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF options market, with call option volumes significantly exceeding put option volumes; some strategies indicate that capital is favoring indirect exposure through mining stocks.