Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Dingdong (@XiaMiPP)
On January 7th, the Ethereum PoS staking exit queue officially dropped to zero. At least from on-chain data, the months-long exit pressure has finally been fully absorbed, and no new large-scale redemption requests have been observed so far.
At the same time, the scale of validators entering the staking queue has increased significantly, and the current queue size has risen to approximately 1,304,400 ETH, with a waiting time of about 22 days and 15 hours, a state that is almost a complete reversal of the situation around mid-September last year.
At that time, the price of ETH was at a stage high of around $4,700, with a bullish market sentiment. However, the staking side showed a different attitude: 2.66 million ETH chose to exit staking, and the waiting time in the exit queue once exceeded 40 days. In the following three and a half months, the price of ETH dropped by about 34%, falling from $4,700 back to $3,100.
Now, after a round of deep price correction, the exit queue has finally been fully absorbed.
The staking queue is an "sentiment indicator," but not a price signal?
Generally, changes in the validator queue are considered an important indicator for observing market sentiment. The underlying logic is that to ensure consensus stability, Ethereum's PoS does not allow nodes to freely join or exit. Instead, it regulates the staking and exit behaviors through a flow control mechanism.
Therefore, when the ETH price is in a high phase, exit demands tend to accumulate easily, and some stakers may choose to cash out their earnings. However, the potential selling pressure is not released instantly, but instead is "stretched" on-chain through the exit queue; whereas when...When the selling demand gradually dries up or is even fully absorbed, it may indicate that a round of structural selling pressure is coming to an end.
From this perspective, the current round of exits from the queue being cleared in tandem with the synchronized increase in entries indeed constitutes a change worth noting. However, I believe that...Although this change has created a positive resonance on the surface, its influence on market prices—note that it's about "influence"—is not equivalent to the phase in September characterized by "high exits and low entries."Because ETH entering the staking queue does not equate to "new capital is actively buying ETH at the moment." A significant portion of the ETH entering staking is...It's likely that position building was already completed in an earlier stage; the current reallocation is simply chosen to be executed at this point in time.Therefore, the increase in the staking queue reflects more the capital's interest in long-term returns, network security, and the stability of staking rewards.Changes in preferences, rather than a significant increase in immediate price demand.This also means that the current improvement in the queue structure is more oriented toward anticipated corrections, rather than exerting equally strong influence on short-term price movements.
Nevertheless, the significant recent increase in staking into the queue still deserves attention. The main driving force behind this trend comes from BitMine, the largest DAT treasury company on Ethereum. According to data from CryptoQuant,BitMine has accumulated a total of approximately 771,000 ETH in staking over the past two weeks, accounting for 18.6% of its total ETH holdings of around 4.14 million.
This also means that the shift in this staking trend is due toAsset allocation behavior dominated by a single large institutionRather than a result of synchronized improvement in overall market risk appetite, therefore, it cannot be simply interpreted as the return of a "completely bullish sentiment." However, in the emerging cryptocurrency market, where liquidity is unevenly distributed, the actions of large institutions often have a more significant and immediate impact on the market.A certain level of emotional support and expectation restoration.
As for whether this trend can continue and whether it will spread to a broader range of participants, time will tell. However, based on on-chain fundamental data, several key metrics of Ethereum are currently showing signs of marginal improvement in tandem.
From "Collateral Changes" to "Fundamental Synergy Improvement"
First, from the developer's perspective,Ethereum development activitiesA new record is being set. Data shows that in the fourth quarter of 2025, Ethereum deployed approximately 8.7 million smart contracts, breaking the previous single-quarter historical record. This shift is more indicative of sustained product and infrastructure development, rather than short-term speculative behavior. The deployment of more contracts means that more DApps, RWA (Real-World Assets), stablecoins, and infrastructure are being implemented, demonstrating Ethereum's role as...The roles of the core execution layer and the settlement layer continue to strengthen.
InStablecoinIn the fourth quarter, on-chain Ethereum stablecoin transaction volume has exceeded that of... 80 billion USD, also setting a new historical record. From the issuance structure perspective, Ethereum's advantage within the stablecoin ecosystem remains significant. Data shows that the share of stablecoin issuance on the Ethereum blockchain accounts for as high as 54.18%, far exceeding other major blockchain networks such as TRON (26.07%), Solana (5.03%), and BSC (4.74%).
At the same time,Ethereum Gas FeesIt has set the lowest record since the mainnet launch and is continuously breaking records. During certain periods, gas fees have even dropped below 0.03 Gwei. Considering that Ethereum will continue to advance block expansion this year, this trend is likely to persist in the medium term. Lower transaction costs directly reduce the threshold for on-chain activities and provide a practical foundation for the continued expansion of the application layer.
FromExchange BalanceFrom this indicator, Ethereum's potential selling pressure is also at a low level. In mid-December, the Ethereum supply on exchanges dropped to 12.7 million, the lowest level since 2016. Particularly since August 2025, this indicator has seen a decline of more than A significant 25% declineAlthough exchange balances have slightly rebounded recently, the increase is only about 200,000 coins, and the overall level remains within a historically low range, indicating that traders' willingness to sell is not strong.
In addition, the crypto KOL rip.eth recently posted on the X platform, pointing out that, based on the gap between total value locked (TVL) and market capitalization, Ethereum might currently be the most undervalued blockchain network. Data shows that Ethereum accounts for 59% of TVL in the crypto market, but the market cap of its token, ETH, represents only about 14%. In comparison, Solana's token market cap/TVL ratio is 3%/7%, Tron is 1%/3.7%, and BNB Chain is 4.5%/5.5%. This to some extent reflects that...There is still a significant misalignment between the valuation of ETH and the scale of economic activity it supports.
Conclusion
Taken as a whole, changes in the staking queue may not be the "single variable" determining price trends. However, when it improves alongside multiple indicators such as developer activity, stablecoin usage volume, transaction costs, and exchange balances, the signals are no longer isolated. Instead, they form a more comprehensive and multidimensional fundamental picture.
For Ethereum, this may not be an emotion-driven rapid reversal, but rather...After completing a round of in-depth adjustments, the system is gradually restoring its structural stability.