Crypto prediction markets crossed $2 billion in World Cup winner bets as the tournament opened in Mexico City today, and millions of traders still can’t agree on who will lift the trophy. Spain and France share the lead at around 16%, while defending champion Argentina sits at just 9%.
The combined total across Polymarket ($1.9 billion) and Kalshi ($132 million) makes this the largest single prediction market event in crypto history. Polymarket runs 328 live World Cup markets and saw $66 million traded in the last 24 hours, with the pool of funds behind those bets sitting at $352.7 million.
The $2 Billion World Cup Betting Record
Polymarket opened the World Cup winner market in July 2025, giving traders nearly a year to weigh in before the opening whistle.
Volume accelerated as the tournament approached, with $66 million changing hands in a single 24-hour window. The combined Polymarket and Kalshi total sets a new record for the largest single prediction market event in crypto history.
Prediction markets have become a staple at every major 2025 event, from the US presidential race to the Super Bowl. The World Cup now represents the biggest test of crypto betting infrastructure yet.
Spain, France, and the Defending Champion
Spain’s 16.5% and France’s 16.1% sit close enough that the market effectively rates them equal co-favourites. England and Portugal each sit at around 11%, with Brazil at 8%.
Defending champion Argentina sits at just 9%, lower than both European sides in the second tier.
The market is not saying Argentina cannot win, but two years on from their Qatar 2022 triumph, crypto bettors no longer rate Argentina as the team to beat. Every result in the group stage will shift that reading fast.
FIFA Goes On-Chain
This tournament also marks FIFA’s first official on-chain prediction infrastructure. ADI Predictstreet, an official FIFA partner powered by Chainlink, runs a separate market alongside Polymarket and Kalshi.
The governing body of world football now operates in the same prediction market space that crypto traders have built.
The tournament has 38 days and 104 matches to settle what $2 billion in collective wisdom couldn’t. The market will not stay deadlocked.