BlockBeats news, on June 10, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, prior to the release of the U.S. May CPI data tonight, the probability of a Fed rate hike this year is 68.8%. The probability of a cumulative hike of 25 basis points is 43.1%, 50 basis points is 21.2%, 75 basis points is 4.2%, and 100 basis points is 0.3%.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May CPI data tonight at 20:30. The market generally expects May CPI to rise 0.5% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year. If these expectations are met, it will mark the first time since May 2023 that U.S. CPI has returned above 4%, reaching the highest level since April 2023. For core CPI, the market anticipates a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a year-over-year growth rate of 2.9%.
For the Federal Reserve, the upcoming CPI data and the subsequent PPI release will serve as key references ahead of the June policy meeting. Recently, bond traders have increased their bets on rate hikes, with some analysts suggesting the Fed could act as early as September. If May’s CPI significantly exceeds expectations—particularly if the magnitude of the increase widens further—it could strengthen the Fed’s rationale for raising rates this year.