Wall Street dự báo sẽ phát hành 1 nghìn tỷ USD nợ ngắn hạn của Mỹ

The Financial Times of the UK reports that Wall Street banks anticipate the U.S. will borrow approximately $1 trillion through short-term Treasury issuance over the next year to meet rising government financing needs. Bank of America forecasts that, in the new fiscal year ending September 2027, the U.S. will issue approximately $1.07 trillion in new borrowing excluding debt repayments; JPMorgan expects short-term Treasury issuance in 2027 to reach about $1.09 trillion, while Goldman Sachs estimates $961 billion. As short-term debt issuance increases, the cost of long-term U.S. borrowing has risen to its highest level since 2007; previously, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent aimed to lower long-term rates by expanding buybacks of 10- to 30-year Treasuries. Bank of America forecasts that by next September, outstanding U.S. short-term Treasuries will rise to approximately $8 trillion, accounting for 24.3% of tradable Treasuries; Goldman Sachs projects this ratio at 24.3% next year and 24.9% in 2028. This level approaches the peak seen during the pandemic, while the U.S. Treasury’s Borrowing Advisory Committee previously recommended maintaining a long-term short-term debt ratio of around 20%. Analysts note that increasing short-term debt issuance helps reduce current financing costs but also raises refinancing risks in the future. Mark Cabana, Head of Interest Rate Strategy at Bank of America, said the Treasury is balancing supply and demand in the bond market, but large-scale short-term issuance could lead to “larger and more volatile” interest expenses. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has purchased substantial amounts of short-term Treasuries this year, and money market funds