Lạm phát PCE của Mỹ giữ nguyên, lợi suất trái phiếu và kỳ vọng tăng lãi suất của BOJ tăng lên

The Huoxing Finance report states that on August 27, the U.S. July PCE increased year-over-year by 3.7%, and core PCE rose by 3.3%, meeting expectations but indicating persistent inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level this year, with real consumer spending showing nearly zero growth, revealing that high mortgage rates and living costs continue to suppress demand. As a result, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September rose from approximately 36% to 42%. Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium regarding the sources of inflation and the interest rate path will serve as a key signal. On another front, U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, prompting markets to bet that the Treasury may reduce long-term pressure by increasing short-term debt issuance, cutting some long-term bond offerings, and expanding buybacks. However, the massive fiscal financing demand remains difficult to alleviate. Simultaneously, the Bank of Japan has signaled a hawkish stance, with expectations for a September rate hike nearing 90%. Capital repatriation from Japan and heightened global competition for bond supply could further push up long-term funding costs. Overall, the coexistence of cooling U.S. demand and sticky inflation—coupled with U.S. fiscal expansion, Japan’s monetary normalization, and energy supply risks—continues to constrain global downward pressure on interest rates. For equities and crypto assets, the key concern going forward is not merely whether the Fed will hike rates, but whether long-term yields and global liquidity will remain under sustained pressure.