Báo cáo việc làm ngoài nông nghiệp tháng 8 của Hoa Kỳ cho thấy tăng trưởng bề ngoài mạnh mẽ, tăng trưởng việc làm thực chất khoảng 60K

The Huoxing Finance report states that on September 5, analysts noted that the U.S. added 162,000 non-farm payroll jobs in August, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 56,000, with prior months’ figures revised upward by a total of 55,000—July’s non-farm employment was revised from a decrease of 23,000 to an increase of 21,000. However, after excluding one-time factors such as rebounding employment in leisure and hospitality and government education sectors, the underlying job growth in August was approximately 60,000, indicating that the overall labor market is not as robust as the headline figures suggest. The report highlights that the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, the labor force participation rate rebounded to 61.6%, and the broad unemployment rate U6 declined from 7.9% to 7.7%, showing that increased labor supply is still being absorbed by corporate demand, improving employment quality. However, the year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings further slowed to 3.1% from the prior reading of 3.2%, below the 3.4% CPI growth in July, suggesting that the labor market has not reignited. Regarding Fed policy, Guangfa Macro believes that the August non-farm data simultaneously refutes two extreme narratives—“job collapse” and “job overheating”—but objectively increases the probability of an interest rate hike this year, as labor market resilience reduces concerns about further policy tightening. Nevertheless, whether the Fed will hike rates in September will still primarily depend on the upcoming August inflation data. In the markets, after the data release, the FedWatch-implied probability of a September rate hike rose from 50% to 58.6%. The 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increased by 4 and 1 basis points respectively to 4.37% and 4.78%. U.S. major indices closed slightly lower, but the AI hardware sector reversed course and rallied, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rising 3%.