Cấm vận quang học trung tâm dữ liệu AI của Mỹ gây ra phản ứng thị trường và tranh luận trên Wall Street

The Huoxing Finance report states that on August 5, the news of the U.S. planning to restrict imports of optical components for Chinese AI data centers has become a new trading theme for the optical module sector. U.S. equities reacted first overnight. Stimulated by the news, optical communication stocks such as Marvell, Coherent, Lumentum, Applied Optoelectronics, and Corning surged collectively, with capital rapidly flowing into the U.S.-based optical communication supply chain. Meanwhile, A-share optical module stocks faced downward pressure today, with North American AI supply chain-linked names like Zhiwei Innovation, NeoPhotonics, and Fortune Optical becoming market focal points. Wall Street’s latest views are beginning to diverge. Both Morgan Stanley and Citigroup released quick analyses on August 4, but their emphases differed significantly. Morgan Stanley emphasized the positive impact on the U.S. optical communication supply chain. It argued that if the U.S. ultimately restricts Chinese optical transceivers from entering AI data center supply chains, non-Chinese suppliers will gain market share opportunities, with Coherent being the clearest beneficiary. AAOI and Fabrinet are also expected to capture some incremental demand. Lumentum’s rationale is relatively indirect, primarily stemming from the potential extension of the EML laser supply shortage cycle; market concerns about easing supply and margin pressure peaks may be delayed. However, Morgan Stanley also acknowledged that implementing such a ban would be highly difficult. Current non-Chinese supplier capacities are insufficient to meet AI capital expenditure demands, and key upstream materials such as InP substrates still involve Chinese supply chains. If the U.S. restricts Chinese optical modules, China could retaliate at critical material stages. Morgan Stanley even suggested a potential solution: Chinese cloud providers might increase procurement of U.S. optical communication components. Citigroup’s assessment was more cautious. It argued that this potential ban would be difficult to formulate as a simple, clear rule. Seven of the world’s top ten optical transceiver companies are Chinese firms, supplying over 50% of high-speed optical modules to major U.S. cloud vendors; meanwhile, the AI optical module supply chain remains tight, with Chinese manufacturers holding advantages in cost, product iteration, and delivery capability. Citigroup expects that under realistic supply-demand constraints, policy exemptions are likely to be introduced. For Chinese companies, Citigroup ranked the impact as follows: Fortune Optical is affected most indirectly, Dongshan Precision moderately, and NeoPhotonics most directly. Fortune Optical primarily supplies passive components to overseas optical module companies, with limited short-term impact; NeoPhotonics benefits from approximately 88% of its 2025 revenue coming from Thailand, providing overseas production buffer capacity. The real concern lies in whether U.S. policy will further extend restrictions to Chinese-backed enterprises’ production facilities in third countries. This explains the market’s divergence: U.S. equities trade on expectations of order shifts, while A-shares trade on risks of compliance with North American clients and valuation discounts. From both reports, Wall Street’s current consensus is clear: if implemented, the ban would benefit short-term valuation re-pricing of the U.S. optical communication chain. The divergence lies in whether order migration can proceed smoothly. AI data center construction continues to accelerate, and cloud vendors require stable, low-cost, high-speed supply chains. Policy can alter expectations, but final outcomes are determined by capacity, certification, yield, and material supply. For the optical module sector, the market is now focusing not just on the ban’s headline but on three key issues: whether the final rules cover third-country production capacity; whether North American cloud vendors will reallocate orders; and whether Chinese suppliers’ overseas factories can continue serving as buffers.