Báo cáo nghiên cứu của Tiger nhấn mạnh Predictive Markets là cơ sở hạ tầng dữ liệu vĩ mô

The Huoxing Finance report states that Ryan Yoon, a researcher at Tiger Research, has released the final report in a series on prediction markets, examining whether prediction markets have practical utility. The report notes that participants stake capital to judge outcomes, with prices updating in real time to new information, forming probability distributions comparable to traditional polls, expert surveys, and economic forecasts. Prediction markets have expanded beyond sports and election forecasting to include macroeconomic and geopolitical data infrastructure. The report cites that Google Finance, CNBC, CNN, and The Wall Street Journal have displayed prediction market probabilities, while the Intercontinental Exchange, parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, and the bond electronic trading platform Tradeweb distribute related data to institutional clients. A Federal Reserve Board working paper describes the prediction market Kalshi as a high-frequency, continuously updated, and information-rich benchmark. The paper states that Kalshi’s median and mode forecasts for the federal funds rate recorded perfect accuracy the day before FOMC meetings and significantly outperformed federal funds futures over this horizon; it was more accurate than Bloomberg Consensus for overall CPI and statistically similar for core CPI and unemployment rates. The report also references research on the Iowa Electronic Markets: in seven out of ten U.S. presidential elections from 1988 to 2004, across 964 polls, its predictions were more accurate in 74% of cases; the average error in vote share one week before election day was 1.5 percentage points, lower than Gallup’s final poll error of 2.1 percentage points. The report proposes that platforms must deepen liquidity to resist manipulation, communicate with regulators, position themselves as monitoring tools, and maintain open, transparent data supported by independent research.