Báo cáo của SemiAnalysis: Gemini 3 Pro có thể là đỉnh điểm mô hình của Google, trọng tâm AI chuyển sang hạ tầng đám mây

The Huoxing Finance report states that on August 7, following personnel shifts at Google DeepMind, market focus on Alphabet’s AI narrative is shifting from model rankings to cloud business monetization. According to the latest report by AI market research firm SemiAnalysis, Demis Hassabis stepping back from day-to-day management of DeepMind, Jeff Dean co-founding Discovery Loop with Sanjay Ghemawat, Quoc Le, and Oriol Vinyals, combined with Koray Kavukcuoglu taking over Gemini/DeepMind, signify a profound restructuring of Google’s cutting-edge model team. SemiAnalysis assesses that Gemini 3 Pro may represent a阶段性 high point in Google’s model competitiveness, as Gemini has clearly fallen behind competitors like OpenAI and Anthropic in performance expectations for 2026. However, SemiAnalysis believes the biggest beneficiary of this adjustment will be Google Cloud. Previously, Gemini and GCP competed for compute resources; now, resource allocation is increasingly tilted toward cloud business and TPU commercialization. SemiAnalysis estimates that Gemini’s ARR in Q2 2026 will be approximately $12 billion, while by the end of 2027, third-party AI IaaS/TaaS ARR on GCP could exceed $73 billion, with TPU sales reaching $120 billion. This also explains the recent market repricing of capital expenditures by large tech companies on AI. Investors are concerned about model companies burning cash too quickly, yet still assign higher certainty valuations to companies capable of selling compute power, cloud services, and accelerators. SemiAnalysis notes that GCP grew 82% last quarter, partly due to sales of TPU systems to external SPVs to support data centers for clients such as Anthropic. As TPU backlogs expand, GCP’s 2027 growth rate may significantly surpass sell-side consensus and provide incremental contribution to Alphabet’s EPS. SemiAnalysis believes the core narrative of Google’s AI story may be rewriting itself: if Gemini continues to lag, it will weaken Alphabet’s positioning in the frontier model race; but if GCP can consistently convert TPU and compute demand into revenue, the market’s valuation anchor for Alphabet will increasingly shift toward cloud infrastructure, enterprise AI platforms, and compute supply capabilities.