Người giao dịch Polymarket đặt cược 1,3 triệu USD vào dầu mỏ giữa bối cảnh căng thẳng địa chính trị

The Huoxing Finance report states that, on July 30, according to Hyperinsight monitoring, Polymarket trader “xm39” initiated a small position yesterday by purchasing 803 USD worth of “Yes” shares on the prediction “The United States will invade Iran before 2027.” Starting early today, the trader executed 223 consecutive buy orders within approximately six hours. Among their history of 42 open positions, 50 closed trades, and the most recent 500 activities, this is their first significant bet on war and macro-geopolitical events. As of publication, they currently hold a cumulative total of 806,700 “Yes” shares, with a total cost basis of approximately $223,000 USD, an average price of $0.2763 per share, and an unrealized loss of approximately -4.12%. Monitoring shows that “xm39” is highly associated with an external wallet starting with 0x40f, which serves as Hyperliquid’s largest long position in WTI crude oil. This address also appears to be continuously betting on crude oil price movements amid escalating geopolitical tensions—marking the first time in nearly a year that this address has opened a crude oil contract. Yesterday, they added a cumulative total of 133,300 WTI crude oil contracts (CL), with a trading volume of approximately $10.791 million USD and a weighted average price of $80.93. Today, they further increased their net position by 2,581.3 contracts. As of publication, this whale holds a 155,200-contract long position in CL with 20x full margin, valued at approximately $13.22 million USD, with an entry average price of $81.80; the position currently holds an unrealized profit of approximately $510,500 USD, yielding a return rate of about 80.3%. As the position is continuously rolled over, the liquidation price has been pushed up to $81.56, now trading above the entry price. Fund flow data shows: Today, this whale withdrew approximately $246,400 USD in four separate transfers to the 0x2000 system address (HyperEVM). Their first withdrawal of $100,000 occurred early today; roughly one minute later, “xm39” began aggressively adding positions on Polymarket. The net withdrawal amount of $246,400 closely matches the $222,200 invested today in the prediction market. From the perspective of address linkage, timing of operations, and fund scale, this capital strongly aligns with being used after cross-chain transfer to bet on “The United States will invade Iran before 2027.”