Chủ tịch Fed New York: Lạm phát do thuế quan gần đỉnh, đầu tư vào AI không nằm trong bong bóng

The Huoxing Finance report states that on August 3, John Williams, President of the New York Fed, said that the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady in July aligns with current economic conditions, as the labor market remains stable and economic growth is solid without signs of overheating, thus no immediate rate hike is necessary. Williams noted that most of the pass-through effect of tariffs on U.S. inflation has already occurred, and it is unlikely to continue significantly pushing up inflation in the coming months. Under the baseline scenario, inflationary pressures from energy prices and tariffs are nearing their peak, and factors previously driving inflation upward are expected to gradually ease. He added that while Middle East conflicts have driven up oil prices, markets generally expect the situation to eventually ease, and prices may decline once energy trade resumes. However, significant uncertainty remains in the energy markets. Williams reiterated that he expects U.S. inflation to return to the 2% target before 2028. He pointed out that declining housing costs, falling goods inflation, and cooling core services inflation will continue to drive inflation downward. Regarding the AI investment boom, Williams stated that he currently sees no signs of a bubble. He views AI as a transformative general-purpose technology, and current investment enthusiasm reflects market expectations of productivity gains and new business models, though future competition among different companies and technological pathways may lead to market volatility. Additionally, Williams said the Federal Reserve has discontinued forward guidance due to heightened economic uncertainty, and policy should be dynamically adjusted based on data from each meeting rather than predetermined paths. He emphasized that the Fed will continue to independently assess economic data and remain committed to bringing inflation back to the 2% target.