Lương phi nông nghiệp thúc đẩy kỳ vọng tăng lãi suất của Fed, Yên chuyển sang logic tăng lãi suất

The Huoxing Finance report states that on September 5, the key themes of the global market this week revolved around expectations for Federal Reserve policy, a stronger yen, geopolitical tensions, and global bond market sell-offs. U.S. non-farm payroll employment in August added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding the forecast of 56,000, prompting markets to reprice bets on a September Fed rate hike, with traders once again raising the probability of a September rate increase to over 60%. Meanwhile, Trump continued to publicly pressure the Fed to cut rates, further highlighting the hawk-dove divide within the Fed. The yen emerged as another major focus this week. The USD/JPY pair briefly approached 160 before swiftly retreating to around 155. Markets initially speculated that the Japanese government might intervene again in the foreign exchange market, but no conclusive evidence has emerged. In contrast, expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike have clearly intensified, with Governor Ueda stating that the September meeting would discuss whether to raise rates; markets are gradually shifting from “intervention trades” to “rate hike trades.” The U.S.-Iran conflict escalated further this week, with the U.S. launching a new strike against Iran, while Iran repeatedly targeted U.S. military assets in Jordan, Bahrain, Erbil in Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. Risks of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have re-entered market pricing. WTI crude briefly broke above $90, while Brent crude rose above $95. Global bond sell-offs continued to spread: Japan’s 10-year government bond yield surged past 3%, reaching its highest level since 1996; yields on long-term bonds in the U.S., U.K., and Europe also rose in tandem, as investors began reassessing the global interest rate floor. Meanwhile, due to El Niño-induced water shortages, Indonesia’s largest nickel industrial park may see production declines of 30% to 40% in nickel smelting and related facilities. In the technology sector, on the day GPT-6 Astra was released, AI services including OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI experienced outages simultaneously, reigniting concerns about the stability of AI infrastructure. Tesla officially launched its Cybercab autonomous ride-hailing service in Austin, further advancing the commercialization of robotaxis. In U.S. equities, the market experienced a “rate shock—bargain-buying rebound—pressure from strong non-farm data” pattern this week: the S&P 500 rose 0.09%, the Nasdaq gained 0.4%, and the Dow fell 0.27%. Gold declined 0.52% this week, closing at $4,431 per ounce; the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.53%, closing at 99.16.