MarsBit: 83% các nhà kinh tế dự đoán ECB sẽ tăng lãi suất vào tháng Chín

The Huoxing Finance report states that on August 13, according to foreign media, 83% of economists expect the European Central Bank to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% in September; 80% expect the deposit facility rate to remain at 2.50% by the end of the year; and 63% expect the deposit facility rate to stay at least at 2.50% until the third quarter of 2027. Of the 69 economists surveyed, 57 (approximately 83%) anticipate a rate hike next month, a higher proportion than the 72% before the July meeting and 65% in June. This indicates that, following the June rate hike, consensus among markets for another ECB rate increase in September is strengthening. Nomura Securities noted: "The longer and higher oil prices remain at current levels, the greater the risk of second-round effects. The ECB cannot act until it sees these effects, but they can act preemptively—which is precisely what the ECB has been doing. The risk is that if the ECB raises rates only once, it will appear as a mere tweak, and it is well known that monetary policy cannot operate this way. If they raise rates once, they are likely to raise them again. Given that the June rate hike was an obvious choice for the ECB, we believe the likelihood of another hike is high." (Jinshi)