Áp lực vĩ mô đè nặng lên các tài sản rủi ro khi Trump đối mặt với tình thế tiến thoái lưỡng nan

The Huoxing Finance report states that on July 23, market analyst qinbafrank noted that tonight, Brent crude oil futures touched $100, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke through 4.7%, and the U.S. Dollar Index rose again above 101. The deteriorating macroeconomic environment is exposing the market to three simultaneous pressures in the short term: rising oil prices pushing up inflation expectations; rising U.S. Treasury yields depressing stock valuations; and a stronger dollar tightening global liquidity. I believe the near-term market outlook is not optimistic, as deleveraging in risk assets has not yet been fully cleared, while macro-level pressures are now迎面而来. If Brent crude oil stabilizes above $100, oil holds at $90, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilizes at 4.7%, and the dollar remains above 101, the Nasdaq, representing large tech stocks, will face the greatest pressure, and gold will also be forced to continue under pressure. The failure to establish a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz and the death of U.S. soldiers make it unlikely that Trump will immediately change course in the short term; he may need to feel extreme market pessimism and pressure before yielding. “Trump may not yet have accepted a harsh reality: he can no longer restore the Strait of Hormuz to its pre-war status, yet he must periodically demonstrate toughness to appease domestic opposition and sentiment for the sake of his approval ratings and reelection.” For Trump, either he must indirectly repurchase international shipping rights through the strait by paying Iran massive sums to relinquish control, or completely destroy Iran’s regime and military capabilities—but it now appears Trump has no intention of going this far.