JPMorgan duy trì phân bổ cổ phiếu 'Công nghệ + Chu kỳ', khuyến nghị bổ sung ngành chăm sóc sức khỏe để giảm rủi ro

The Huoxing Finance report states that, as of August 4, J.P. Morgan’s latest report continues to favor the "Technology + Cyclical" combination for equity allocation, while recommending the addition of healthcare as a third investment theme to reduce overall portfolio correlation with macro factors. The report notes that the technology sector currently presents opportunities for a rebound after overselling. The forward P/E ratios of the U.S. "Magnificent Seven" (excluding semiconductor companies) have fallen below the historical average since 2018 by more than two standard deviations, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 56% upon mean reversion. J.P. Morgan believes market concerns over AI investment returns are overblown; backlog growth at ultra-large cloud companies has risen by about 150%, outpacing capital expenditure growth of around 80%. The firm sees mean reversion opportunities in AI-related assets, particularly highlighting AI targets in South Korea and other Asia-Pacific regions. Regarding cyclical sectors, J.P. Morgan recommends shifting from financials and consumer stocks to industrials, as industrial companies are expected to benefit from global economic improvement, profit recovery, and valuation re-rating driven by AI themes. Additionally, the report suggests allocating to the healthcare sector as a defensive asset due to its low correlation with macroeconomic cycles, helping to reduce portfolio volatility. For emerging markets, J.P. Morgan tactically favors Hong Kong-listed Chinese equities, believing they stand to benefit from AI infrastructure development and commercialization trends, though their performance has lagged behind South Korea, Taiwan, and A-shares. The report also advises investors to consider taking partial profits on certain AI supply chain names that have experienced excessive gains and high positioning congestion. Furthermore, the report recommends paying attention to Asian oil refiners, as geopolitical uncertainties are pushing Asian refining margins to historical highs.