Các nhà đầu tư lẻ Nhật Bản giữ vị thế bán khống 23,5 tỷ Yên trong bối cảnh đồng tiền tăng giá

The Huoxing Finance report states that on September 9, Bloomberg, aggregating data from the Japan Securities Dealers Association and the Tokyo Financial Exchange, found that as of last week, Japanese retail investors held a net yen short position of approximately JPY 3.61 trillion (about USD 23.5 billion), further increasing from August. In July, this position reached JPY 4.41 trillion, the highest level since 2015. Japanese retail investors have long exhibited a contrarian trading habit of selling yen when it strengthens and buying yen when it weakens; however, as the yen continues to strengthen, these short positions are facing mounting pressure to cover. Mizuho Bank strategist Masayuki Nakajima noted that if the yen appreciates further, some retail investors may be forced to close their long dollar positions—selling dollars and buying yen—thereby amplifying the yen’s upward momentum. Bets on a stronger yen are also clearly intensifying in the options market. CME Group data shows that the most actively traded USD/JPY options on Tuesday were put options expiring in November with a strike price of 142.86; by year-end, the volume of USD/JPY put options exceeded call options by more than threefold. The market is currently primarily betting that USD/JPY will decline toward 150–152, with some 12-month options even pricing in a drop to 140. Meanwhile, Wall Street remains divided on the yen’s future trajectory. Some strategists believe the Bank of Japan has limited room for further rate hikes and that USD/JPY near 150 may encounter policy resistance; other institutions argue that if the Bank of Japan signals further policy tightening, combined with Japanese exporters potentially accelerating the repatriation of overseas funds, the yen still has room to appreciate. The current market focus is shifting toward the policy paths of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. If the yen continues to rise, the massive long-dollar and short-yen positions held by Japanese retail investors could transform from a force suppressing the yen into fuel driving its further appreciation through forced covering.