Goldman Sachs bác bỏ ba mối quan ngại giảm điểm chính về lĩnh vực chip bộ nhớ

The Huoxing Finance report, on August 7, noted that in today’s report, Justin Park, a trader at Goldman Sachs’ Seoul division, stated that recent sharp volatility in the Korean stock market has pushed fundamental expectations for the memory chip industry to an overly pessimistic level, with market pricing implying a degree of fundamental pessimism that “exceeds reality.” The intensity and duration of the memory cycle may surpass previous cycles. Goldman Sachs maintains its overweight stance on the Korean market and its 12-month target for the KOSPI at 12,000 points. After reaching a peak on June 22, the KOSPI index plunged 39%, then surged 17.9% on July 31—the largest single-day gain in history. Goldman Sachs believes this sharp decline was not driven by a fundamental deterioration but rather triggered by concerns over the sustainability of the memory cycle, significantly amplified by passive selling of leveraged ETFs and short-term momentum investors following suit. Technically, conditions have clearly improved—leveraged ETF sizes have contracted, margin exposure has declined, regulatory oversight has tightened, and hedge fund positions have retreated, resulting in a cleaner market structure that lays the foundation for subsequent recovery. Goldman Sachs refutes each of the three core bearish concerns point by point. Concern One: NVIDIA’s plan to reduce HBM configuration for Rubin Ultra. Goldman Sachs interprets this inversely—it confirms a structural bottleneck in HBM supply. HBM has become the most critically constrained component in the AI supply chain, and its availability will be a key constraint on global AI industry expansion. Concern Two: Opportunity cost of SK Hynix’s LTA strategy. A large portion of capacity is locked into older HBM3E production lines, causing SK Hynix’s DRAM market share to drop to 26% in Q2, while Samsung regained the top spot at 39%, narrowing the gap between Micron and SK Hynix to just 1 percentage point. Goldman Sachs believes SK Hynix’s competitiveness in the next phase depends on its ability to rapidly transition production lines. Concern Three: The narrative of “better-than-expected but below market expectations” for NAND triggered profit-taking; consumer and edge computing businesses saw a quarter-over-quarter decline of 32%, with management expecting meaningful recovery only by 2027. Goldman Sachs’ structural assessment is that DRAM process scaling is nearing saturation—10nm may be the final node—where declining yields and sharply rising capital expenditures will structurally support a positive outlook for the memory cycle. On the demand side, two positive signals exist: ChangXin Memory has rejected Apple’s price-reduction demands, pricing its products at parity with Samsung and SK Hynix; DeepSeek is planning a “significant” price increase, signaling the end of the era of ultra-low-cost subsidized AI inference.