Các tài sản rủi ro toàn cầu tăng trưởng nhờ niềm tin vào chính sách và mở rộng hạ tầng AI

The Huoxing Finance report states that on August 5, global markets continued their strong performance in risk assets, but the true driver of capital flows is no longer merely corporate earnings or AI-themed narratives; rather, it is the synchronized intervention by governments in energy, exchange rates, supply chains, and monetary policy, leading markets to reassess institutional credibility and policy execution capabilities. AI capital expenditures remain the most important growth engine for the market. Anthropic signed a computing services agreement worth up to $10 billion with Volta Infra, while Samsung launched its new V10 V-NAND, significantly increasing storage density—once again demonstrating that AI infrastructure is still in a phase of rapid expansion. The continued willingness of market capital to pay premiums for computing power, storage, and semiconductor supply chains indicates that corporations are still prepared to bear higher capital costs in exchange for future competitive advantages. However, Federal Reserve officials have simultaneously signaled a more hawkish stance, suggesting that current interest rates remain insufficient to effectively curb inflation, creating a coexistence of AI investment and a high-interest-rate environment. In the future, markets will place greater emphasis on whether companies possess sufficient cash flow and profitability to support large-scale capital expenditures, rather than relying solely on valuation expansion to drive stock prices. Another noteworthy development comes from the energy market. Substantial progress has been made in negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz, with the contours of a U.S.-Iran agreement gradually emerging, even extending to discussions involving European participation in mine-clearing and establishing a joint maintenance mechanism—indicating that all parties have transitioned from military confrontation to negotiations on shipping order and energy governance. If the strait resumes normal navigation in the future, even with increased maintenance costs, it would still be far lower than the supply risks posed by war, suggesting that risk premiums in the energy market are likely to continue declining. Meanwhile, the U.S. government is considering extending the Jones Act waiver, further utilizing administrative tools to lower domestic energy costs, reflecting that energy prices are no longer merely an economic issue but directly impact political support and policy stability. Additionally, while the Bank of Japan has not yet intervened in the foreign exchange market, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly stated that necessary measures will be taken to support the yen, signaling that exchange rates are gradually becoming part of policy tools rather than being entirely market-determined. On the other hand, the U.S. continues to study expanding the scope of metal tariffs, indicating that supply chain protection policies will persist; global manufacturing costs and inflationary pressures are unlikely to fully dissipate in the short term. Although Michael Burry has again warned that markets may replicate the 1987-style crash, his view is primarily based on structural risks arising from market leverage and compressed volatility, rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. Notably, while U.S. equities hit new highs, VIX has also risen simultaneously, indicating that markets have not entirely ignored potential risks but are instead driving asset price increases through a combination of options hedging and leveraged trading. This structure implies that as long as AI capital expenditures, corporate profitability, and policy credibility remain intact, markets still have an upward foundation; however, if inflation reaccelerates, the Fed further tightens policy, or Hormuz negotiations stall again, highly valued tech stocks and leveraged strategies will become the primary sources of renewed volatility expansion. In the short term, market focus will center on whether the Hormuz Strait agreement is formally implemented, the latest statements by Fed officials on interest rate trajectories, and whether AI infrastructure investment continues to accelerate. These three key themes will jointly determine the new equilibrium among global capital costs, energy prices, and technology valuations—and will become the core basis for pricing risk assets in the future.