Walsh của Fed giữ lãi suất ổn định, thị trường trái phiếu mất 115 tỷ USD amid lo ngại thắt chặt

The Huoxing Finance report states that on August 3, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh decided last week to hold interest rates steady, yet bond markets experienced significant volatility. A seasoned bond fund manager believes that the Fed’s “hold” stance generated a stronger financial tightening effect through market reactions than an actual rate hike would have. Eric Hickman, founder of Lantern Capital, noted that as of last Friday’s close, following the Fed’s rate decision and Warsh’s press conference, the total market value of U.S. Treasuries, notes, and bills across various maturities shrank by approximately $115 billion. Hickman calculated that if the Fed had opted for a 25-basis-point rate hike that week and assumed bond yields for maturities under five years rose by 25 basis points in tandem, the bond market would have suffered losses of about $65 billion under extreme conditions—less than the actual losses incurred this time. He argues that Warsh achieved a stronger tightening effect by allowing markets to reprice rather than directly raising policy rates, while avoiding a commitment to maintain higher rates over the long term. Data shows that on Friday, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury rose to 5.229%, hitting its highest level in nearly 19 years; the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.688%, the highest since January 2025. Hickman said it remains unclear whether Warsh deliberately leveraged market reactions to tighten policy, but his longstanding advocacy for reducing forward guidance and allowing markets to digest economic information was clearly reflected in this policy approach. However, there is internal disagreement within the Fed. St. Louis Fed President Musalem stated that monetary policy responsibility lies with the FOMC, not financial markets, suggesting concern over the approach of relying on market adjustments to achieve policy outcomes.