Những nghi ngờ về việc khôi phục dòng chảy dầu qua Eo biển Hormuz

The Huoqiu Finance report states that on August 27, crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are slowly recovering, but a significant gap remains between the increased loading by Gulf oil-producing nations and actual imports into Asia, leaving market participants skeptical about the authenticity of the supply recovery. Currently, traders estimate that approximately 6 million to 8 million barrels of crude oil per day are passing through the Strait of Hormuz—about half the pre-conflict levels. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait have all recently seen a rebound in loading activity, with Iraq’s daily loading capacity briefly exceeding pre-conflict levels. However, some crude still needs to be transshipped via ports such as Sohar in Oman and Fujairah in the UAE; increased loading does not necessarily mean the crude has actually reached Asian buyers. Kpler data shows that Asia’s projected crude imports for August are 23.12 million barrels per day, approximately 14% lower than the three-month average of 26.91 million barrels per day before the conflict. India’s crude imports for August are projected at only 4.51 million barrels per day, with around 1.45 million barrels per day coming from the Middle East—just half the pre-conflict average. Additionally, Middle Eastern crude arriving in Asia in August is estimated at 11.11 million barrels per day, up from 10.76 million barrels per day in July but still nearly 30% below the pre-conflict level of 15.82 million barrels per day. Analysts believe the current gap between loading and arrivals may partly reflect transportation delays, and data over the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the Strait of Hormuz supply has truly recovered.