Sản xuất CXMT DRAM đạt đỉnh vào năm 2025, giá tăng mạnh vào năm 2026

The Huoxing Finance report indicates that China’s leading DRAM manufacturer, CXMT, reached a monthly wafer output peak of approximately 240,000 units by the end of 2025 and is expected to remain flat in 2026. Its capacity expansion has been constrained due to tighter U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductor equipment, particularly EUV lithography machines, with meaningful expansion unlikely before 2027 and dependent on progress in domestic equipment supply chains. According to Goldman Sachs data, CXMT’s coverage of domestic DRAM demand is projected to be only around 41% in 2026 and approximately 50% in 2028, reflecting a multi-year structural bottleneck. TrendForce data shows that traditional DRAM contract prices surged 90%-95% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026 and rose another 58%-63% in Q2; Jefferies forecasts further increases of 40%-50% in Q3 and 30%-40% in Q4. Server DRAM prices have risen even more sharply, with Samsung and SK Hynix proposing price hikes of 60%-70% for Q1 to customers such as Microsoft and Google. S&P Global expects Samsung’s revenue per bit for traditional DRAM to rise 116% year-over-year in 2026 to $0.79, while Micron’s ASP is projected to increase 54% to $1.06; Bernstein forecasts SK Hynix’s DRAM gross margin could reach 92.7% in Q4 2026. Multiple analysts predict that effective supply relief will not occur until late 2027 or even 2028.