Cảm xúc thị trường tiền điện tử và đà giá phân kỳ, làm gia tăng rủi ro điều chỉnh

The Huoxing Finance report states that on September 2, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted that the Bitcoin sentiment index, after peaking on August 24, has continued to cool but remains in the "extremely greedy" range. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's current price has not risen but instead declined compared to the $78,700 level on August 24, indicating that the rising market sentiment has not been supported by corresponding price momentum. From the sentiment composition perspective, the current high level is primarily driven by the Fear & Greed Index. The Z-score of this indicator reached +2.19σ, exceeding the average of the past 365 days by more than two standard deviations; participant sentiment remains only mildly optimistic. Data shows that the current "extremely greedy" condition does not reflect a broad strengthening across all market sentiment indicators, but rather a significant rebound of the Fear & Greed Index relative to its low baseline over the past year. The analysis notes that a high sentiment index itself does not necessarily signal an imminent market downturn; however, the combination of extreme optimism and lack of sustained price appreciation may make the market more sensitive to weakening demand. To confirm a more sustainable bullish environment, Bitcoin’s price must validate the current high sentiment level through further momentum growth, and other sentiment indicators must also improve in tandem. Conversely, if elevated sentiment persists without corresponding demand or price increases, the risk of a market correction may rise.