Commerzbank: Sự yếu đi của đồng đô la phản ánh việc định giá lại lộ trình tăng lãi suất

The Huoxing Finance report states that on July 30, the Foreign Exchange Research Team at Commerzbank noted that after the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged but revealed significant internal divisions, the US Dollar Index briefly declined while the Euro rose. The weaker dollar tone, combined with market pricing for a September rate hike and rising long-term US Treasury yields, collectively drove the EUR/USD pair higher, reflecting a shift in market expectations for US monetary policy. The bank's analysts said: "Three officials voted against the decision, supporting a 25-basis-point rate hike, highlighting growing concerns over persistent inflation. The market interpreted this decision as less hawkish than implied by the dissenting votes, pushing down US 2-year Treasury yields and the dollar. However, long-term yields rose sharply as investors believed the Fed's response was insufficient to curb ongoing inflation. Federal funds futures indicate a 63% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September. Market expectations for total rate hikes this year have been revised down from 42 basis points on Tuesday to 33 basis points." (Jin10)