Chuyên gia Bitunix: Walsh làm suy yếu hướng dẫn tương lai, thị trường phải định giá lại dữ liệu, lãi suất và chi phí vốn

The Huoxing Finance report states that on August 7, the U.S. July Non-Farm Payrolls report is set to be released, with market expectations forecasting approximately 80,000 to 83,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. However, recent labor data has shown clear divergence. The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1 fell to 199,000, marking the third consecutive week below 200,000, and layoffs by U.S. companies in July also declined significantly. Yet, ADP reported only 44,000 new private-sector jobs—the lowest level since early this year—indicating that corporate hiring has not expanded in tandem. More notably, the U.S. labor force participation rate has dropped to 61.5%, the lowest since March 2021; thus, the 4.2% unemployment rate cannot be simply interpreted as a sign of a strong labor market, as part of its stability stems from a simultaneous slowdown in labor supply. Under this context, the true market impact of tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls report will not lie solely in the number of new jobs created, but rather in whether employment, wages, and unemployment rates collectively reinforce the Fed’s concerns over inflation. Fed’s Musalem indicated that the likelihood of inflation remaining persistently above target is increasing and revealed his inclination toward a rate hike at the most recent FOMC meeting. Markets are even beginning to discuss the possibility that, if recent inflation data remains strong and expectations for borrowing costs rise further, Walsh could raise rates at the September meeting. This makes the policy linkage between employment and inflation data even more critical. Meanwhile, Walsh’s weakening of forward guidance forces markets to rely more heavily on economic data to independently assess the Fed’s policy reaction function. JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon supports this reform, noting that reassessing the Fed’s policy framework is significant; however, he also warns that markets have accumulated substantial leverage through channels such as prime brokers, hedge funds, ETFs, and Treasury arbitrage, leaving overall leverage still elevated. When policy communication diminishes while market leverage remains high, any shift in interest rate expectations could transmit more rapidly to asset prices. Corporations are also facing pressure from rising capital costs. Alphabet plans to raise up to $25 billion through investment-grade bond issuance, while Tesla continues advancing its TeraFab project in Texas—AI and computing infrastructure still require massive capital investment. On the other hand, the Democratic Republic of Congo has banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates, and risks related to the Strait of Hormuz have not been fully resolved; constraints on energy and critical raw material supplies may further drive up infrastructure construction costs. This means global capital markets now face not only interest rate pressures but also simultaneous upward pressure on funding, energy, and raw material costs. For the crypto market, this environment implies that highly volatile assets like Bitcoin remain highly sensitive to U.S. dollar liquidity, long-term yields, and global risk appetite. If the Non-Farm Payrolls and subsequent inflation data rekindle expectations for rate hikes, market pressure will stem not only from policy rates themselves but from the repricing of overall risk-free rates and financing costs. Conversely, if employment and inflation cool simultaneously, it will provide clearer policy space for risk assets. Therefore, what truly needs to be observed tonight is how the data will alter the Fed’s reaction function—and how this change will ultimately transmit to the dollar, long-term yields, and global capital costs.