Chuyên gia Bitunix: Thị trường bước vào giai đoạn 'định giá sai rủi ro' amid sự chậm lại của việc làm, thu hẹp năng lượng và gia tăng địa chính trị

The Huoxing Finance report states that on April 1, the market faced a triple shock: weakening employment, renewed energy contraction, and expanding warfare. The decline in U.S. job openings, coupled with gasoline prices rising to $4 and OPEC production falling to its lowest level since the pandemic peak, indicates a passive tightening of energy supply, leaving inflationary pressures unresolved and policy pathways once again uncertain. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett continues to accumulate cash, and the CFTC has intensified oversight of energy and information manipulation, reflecting mainstream capital reducing risk exposure and remaining vigilant against market pricing distortions. On the geopolitical front, a qualitative shift has occurred. Iran has not withdrawn but expanded its target scope beyond traditional energy and military facilities to include U.S. technology and data infrastructure, explicitly naming multiple Silicon Valley and defense companies’ operational hubs in the Middle East. This signifies that warfare has escalated from a “supply chain” issue to a systemic risk targeting “digital and computational infrastructure.” Simultaneously, divisions within NATO have deepened, with core European nations restricting military coordination, while the UAE has shifted toward active military intervention in the Strait of Hormuz—demonstrating that the global community has not formed a unified action framework but instead entered a chaotic state of multi-party博弈 and outsourced responsibility, further undermining the market’s ability to price risk effectively. Under this structure, capital behavior has become extremely conservative and short-term oriented: on one hand, demand for cash and safe-haven assets has risen; on the other, energy and war risk premiums continue to distort valuations of risk assets, leaving the market without a stable anchor. BTC’s movement is therefore not proactive but a passive reflection of whether capital is willing to absorb risk. Currently, a clear liquidity accumulation has formed in the 69,000–70,100 range, yet price is under pressure near 68,000, indicating insufficient appetite for chasing higher prices; meanwhile, 65,500 has become the short-term risk test zone—if macroeconomic or wartime conditions escalate further, this level may turn into a liquidity release point. Overall, the market has shifted from “event-driven” to “structural distortion”: weakening employment has failed to generate expectations of easing; ongoing energy contraction continues to push up hidden inflation; and warfare has expanded from physical supply chains to digital infrastructure. Under this interwoven web of uncertainties, any price movement is fundamentally the result of liquidity reallocation—not the establishment of a new trend.