Chuyên gia Bitunix: Tín hiệu cứng rắn của Fed thúc đẩy đánh giá lại tín dụng đô la và chi phí vốn toàn cầu

The Huoxing Finance report states that on August 6, U.S. July ADP employment added 44,000 jobs, indicating a continued cooling in the labor market. However, Federal Reserve officials have successively signaled a hawkish stance, with Kashkari, Cook, and Daly all emphasizing that if inflation does not continue to improve, further rate hikes cannot be ruled out, causing markets to re-recognize that economic slowdown does not necessarily imply an immediate shift toward monetary easing. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury announced it will maintain the same pace for Treasury buybacks and issuances, indicating that markets will continue to absorb substantial U.S. government bond supply in the near term. The persistence of high long-term yields also suggests that financial conditions are still tightening organically through market mechanisms. What truly impacts global asset valuations is no longer just whether the Fed will raise rates, but rather the combined effect of massive government financing needs, elevated long-term rates, and rising market risk premiums pushing up global capital costs. On the geopolitical front, while Iran and Oman are nearing an agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, temporary arrangements remain in place, and full resumption of navigation still depends on progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Even though the risk of supply disruptions has decreased, Iran’s attempt to gain greater control over and charging rights for the shipping lanes signifies that uncertainties in the global energy supply chain remain unresolved, and energy prices may continue to fluctuate due to policy and negotiation developments. From a market structure perspective, global capital is currently facing a confluence of high capital costs, sustained government financing, expansion of AI infrastructure, and energy-related geopolitical risks. Capital allocation will increasingly prioritize capital efficiency and cash flow quality, while high-valuation and highly leveraged assets will continue to face significant discounting pressure. In the cryptocurrency market, ETFs recorded net inflows of $475 million over the past week and $922 million over the past month, indicating that short-term institutional capital continues to replenish risk assets. However, over the past quarter, there has still been a cumulative outflow of $7.932 billion, reflecting that large-scale capital maintains a relatively conservative allocation stance toward the overall market. This implies that the market has not entered a broad-based recovery in risk appetite; rather, it is continuously seeking a new equilibrium in asset pricing amid global liquidity conditions, long-term yields, and policy uncertainty. Bitcoin will remain dominated in the short term by U.S. dollar liquidity, global capital costs, and shifts in risk appetite. Whether ETF inflows can transition from short-term replenishment to sustained inflows will be a key indicator to monitor in the coming period.