Biến động của bitcoin đạt mức thấp nhất trong năm, thị trường quyền chọn cảnh giác với đà điều chỉnh

The Huoxing Finance report states that Bitcoin’s recent volatility is nearing disappearance, but market risks have not been eliminated. Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have not experienced outflows, with a cumulative net inflow of approximately $754 million. However, Bitcoin’s price remains around $64,700, while the options market is heavily positioning for downside protection near $62,000 and $63,000. Market signals are diverging: on one hand, demand for spot ETFs is rebounding; on the other, derivatives traders are preparing for potential pullbacks ahead of the release of the latest U.S. employment data. Nevertheless, overall positioning still leans bullish. Bitcoin call options account for approximately 60.7% of total open interest, indicating investors’ long-term sentiment remains positive, though recent trading activity has focused more on short-term risk hedging. Meanwhile, the cost of volatility protection remains low. The DVOL index, which reflects Bitcoin’s expected 30-day volatility on Deribit, is currently around 35—significantly lower than its peak of 90 earlier this year—suggesting the market views the likelihood of large swings in the near term as limited. However, U.S. macroeconomic data could disrupt this equilibrium. Markets expect U.S. non-farm payroll growth in July to rise by approximately 97,500 jobs, higher than June’s 57,000, with unemployment projected to remain at 4.2%. If employment data exceeds expectations, it could push U.S. Treasury yields higher and reinforce expectations of Fed rate hikes; if data is weak, yields may decline, but concerns over slowing economic growth could intensify. Currently, the Bitcoin market exhibits a dynamic where spot prices are supported by ETF inflows while options markets hedge against downside risks. Even in a low-volatility environment, potential risks remain值得关注. In conditions of low market participation and insufficient liquidity, even minor shifts in supply or demand could trigger sharp price movements.