Biến động ngầm của bitcoin chạm đáy hỗ trợ dài hạn, các chuyên gia cảnh báo rủi ro biến động ẩn

The Huoxing Finance report states that Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility has retreated to the long-term support level of 36%, with the price remaining in a narrow range below $65,000. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, noted that low volatility environments suppress trading costs, encouraging traders to build large directional bets and hedging positions; should the price break through key levels, market makers’ passive hedging activities could amplify price swings and trigger a mean-reverting rebound in volatility. On the sentiment front, Paul-Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, said that demand for put options has significantly cooled, while call options also lack buying interest. Glassnode characterizes this state as “no money is betting on upside, and no money is betting on downside,” suggesting this phenomenon often signals that the market is nearing a cycle bottom. The divergence between Dogecoin and Bitcoin further reflects sustained weak speculative sentiment. Howard believes that positive regulatory developments such as the Clarity Bill, which could drive institutional ETF inflows, may serve as the next major catalyst for price movement, while failed negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz and unexpectedly high inflation remain key downside risks.