Arthur Hayes dự đoán bong bóng AI vỡ sẽ thúc đẩy đợt tăng giá của bitcoin

The Huoxing Finance report states that on August 5, Arthur Hayes published a new article titled "Situationship," suggesting that the AI bubble may eventually burst, but its aftermath could drive global liquidity expansion and serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s next bull market. Hayes argues that the key to determining whether AI constitutes a bubble lies in how investors define AI infrastructure investment. He notes that the market generally treats tens of trillions of dollars in AI capital expenditures as "technology investment," assigning high-growth valuations, but its true nature is more akin to "real estate investment." He explains that current AI infrastructure development is essentially constructing underlying assets such as data centers and power facilities to support computing power, rather than directly investing in technology companies like Apple. "Financial institutions, private credit funds, and governments may mistakenly believe that investing in AI data centers is equivalent to investing in tech giants, when in reality it is more similar to investing in highly leveraged infrastructure projects." Hayes believes the core reason for the AI bubble’s potential burst is not corporate profitability failure, but excessive credit expansion. He states that, with support from the U.S. and Chinese governments, financial intermediaries may overbuild data centers, power facilities, and related supply chains, ultimately creating credit cycle risks similar to those of the 2008 financial crisis, rather than the profit valuation crisis seen in the 2000 dot-com bubble. However, Hayes maintains that AI’s long-term value remains immense. He points out that the computing resources operating within data centers will drive the development of "silicon-based life," exerting a profound impact on human civilization comparable to that of the railway era. Regarding market implications, Hayes anticipates that after the AI bubble bursts, governments and central banks may adopt more aggressive monetary easing measures—through "massive money printing"—to repair the financial system, push risk assets back into an upward cycle, and ultimately benefit Bitcoin. Hayes states that the key variable in the current AI cycle is whether capital markets have mispriced AI infrastructure, and this judgment will determine the future direction of the market.