May CPI is a double edged sword for the Fed crucial FOMC meeting next week the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh. 📊 📈The Good: Core CPI cooled to 0.2% MoM (below 0.3% expected). 📉The Bad: Headline CPI surged to 4.2% YoY, driven by energy shocks. While retail expects a hawkish rate stance, macro data shows Kevin Warsh is actually an interest rate dove but a balance sheet hawk. He views the AI infrastructure wave not as an inflationary cost, but as a long term deflationary productivity booster. What to expect next week: A pause is locked in. However, instead of threatening rate hikes, Warsh will likely lean into "strategic ambiguity" keeping interest rates steady while turning hawkish on Quantitative Tightening (QT) and liquidity drainage. Watch the balance sheet, not just the dot plot. 🦅🕊️ #Fed #CPI #Macro

🚨 U.S. INFLATION UPDATE 🇺🇸 Headline CPI (YoY) came in at 4.2%, matching expectations and rising from the previous 3.8%. 📈 Monthly CPI increased 0.5%, also in line with forecasts. 🇺🇸 Core CPI (YoY) rose to 2.9%, exactly as expected. 📉 However, Core CPI (MoM) came in at 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% and down from the previous 0.4% — a potentially encouraging sign on underlying inflation pressures. Markets are now digesting a mixed report: headline inflation moved higher, but core monthly inflation showed signs of cooling.

🚨 U.S. May CPI Update CPI MoM: 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% Core CPI MoM: 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% CPI YoY: 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.0% Core CPI YoY: 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.9% Inflation came in hotter than expected, keeping the “higher for longer” narrative alive. #zBit #CPI #Fed #Macro #Crypto

CPI cooled. Inflation didn't. The print most will celebrat today hides the number that actually matters. Core CPI MoM came in at 0.2%, under the 0.3% expected and down from 0.4%. That's the soft, dovish number, and CT will run with it all afternoon. Now the line they skip: headline CPI YoY accelerated to 4.2% from 3.8%, and core YoY ticked up to 2.9% from 2.8%. The month cooled. The year kept heating up. A single soft month-over-month sitting on top of an accelerating year-over-year is not disinflation. It's one data point against a warming trend, and one point doesn't reverse a direction. So Warsh doesn't get the clean dovish green light the timeline is selling, I mean telling you. The headline hands the doves a soundbite. The trend hands the hawks their cover. Warsh can stay patient and still point straight at the data. SP lost an uptrend which was building for +50 days, and bitcoin:native barely bounced on these news, so I don't see this as a catalyst for a larger move higher, at least not yet. So I'm going for a hold on next week FOMC, you?

🚨 CPI JUST DROPPED — AND THE MARKET IS PAYING ATTENTION Today’s inflation print delivered a mixed headline, but the detail that matters most is hiding underneath. 📊 CPI MoM: 0.5% (in line with expectations) 📊 Core CPI MoM: 0.2% (below 0.3% expected) 📊 CPI YoY: 4.2% (in line with expectations) The headline number wasn’t a surprise. The real story is Core CPI. Why? Because Core CPI strips out volatile food and energy prices and is one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauges for underlying inflation pressure. A drop from 0.4% → 0.2% month-over-month is a meaningful cooling signal. 🔥➡️❄️ What does this mean for markets? ✅ Lower-than-expected Core CPI strengthens the argument that inflation is easing. ✅ Easing inflation increases the probability of future rate cuts. ✅ Rate-cut expectations are generally supportive for risk assets like stocks and crypto. This doesn’t automatically mean the Fed starts cutting tomorrow. But it does mean the inflation battle may be moving in the right direction. Markets don’t react to good or bad numbers. They react to numbers versus expectations. And today’s Core CPI came in better than expected. That’s why traders are focused on the 0.2%, not the 0.5%. 🧠 The takeaway: Headline CPI was neutral. Core CPI was the surprise. And surprises move markets. Keep watching bond yields, the dollar, and Bitcoin’s reaction over the next few hours. That’s where the real verdict will show up. #CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #Bitcoin #Crypto #Stocks #MacroEconomics #Markets

PPI is due Thursday after CPI today. Why traders watch both: CPI tracks consumer prices, while PPI can show inflation pressure at the producer level before it reaches consumers.

Just reported: US inflation rises as expected to the highest level since May 2023 CPI MoM 0.5%; Forecast was +0.5% CPI YoY 4.2%; Forecast was +4.2% CPI Core MoM 0.2%; Forecast +0.3% CPI Core YoY 2.9%; Forecast +2.9% The monthly increase in the core rate, excluding food and energy, came in slightly below expectations. The rest was already priced in. from FurkanYildirim

4.2% CPI Looks Hot. The Internals Say Be Careful. May CPI came in at 4.2% y/y, the highest print since April 2023, so the knee-jerk market reaction is obvious: sell first, debate the details later. I think that read is too lazy. This is a bad inflation headline, but not yet a clean overheating print. Energy did the damage Energy accounted for over 60% of the monthly CPI increase, with the energy index up 3.9% in May and gasoline up 7.0% m/m. That is not the same thing as every company suddenly regaining pricing power. It is a geopolitical energy shock running through the CPI basket, and those shocks can make headline inflation look much worse than the underlying trend. That distinction matters. A supply shock and a demand shock should not get the same market multiple. Core is the tell Core CPI rose 2.9% y/y and only 0.2% m/m, down from 0.4% in April. That is not soft enough for the Fed to celebrate. But it is also not the kind of acceleration that screams broad-based inflation spiral. Headline says inflation is reheating. Core says the trend is still sticky, still uncomfortable, but not breaking higher in the same way. That is the real read. Where this can get dangerous The market problem is not May gasoline by itself. The problem is pass-through. Airline fares were already up 2.7% m/m, which is exactly the type of category where fuel costs can bleed into services pricing. That is the line the Fed has to watch. The wrong take is “inflation is back everywhere.” The sharper take is “energy is distorting the headline, while core will decide whether this becomes persistent.” Bottom line: 4.2% CPI is ugly, but the details argue against panic. This is an energy-led inflation shock, not yet proof that the entire economy is overheating. For markets, the next trade is less about this CPI print and more about whether gasoline cools before the Fed feels forced to react to a headline it cannot ignore.

He's not wrong, just saying the quiet part out loud. Inflation is the most effective way to devalue a mountain of sovereign debt. The US is sitting on $35 trillion of it. It's a stealth default. For everyone else, it's a tax. And with CPI at a 3-year high, it's another nail in the coffin for risk assets. The Fed can't pivot.