
CPI cooled. Inflation didn't. The print most will celebrat today hides the number that actually matters. Core CPI MoM came in at 0.2%, under the 0.3% expected and down from 0.4%. That's the soft, dovish number, and CT will run with it all afternoon. Now the line they skip: headline CPI YoY accelerated to 4.2% from 3.8%, and core YoY ticked up to 2.9% from 2.8%. The month cooled. The year kept heating up. A single soft month-over-month sitting on top of an accelerating year-over-year is not disinflation. It's one data point against a warming trend, and one point doesn't reverse a direction. So Warsh doesn't get the clean dovish green light the timeline is selling, I mean telling you. The headline hands the doves a soundbite. The trend hands the hawks their cover. Warsh can stay patient and still point straight at the data. SP lost an uptrend which was building for +50 days, and bitcoin:native barely bounced on these news, so I don't see this as a catalyst for a larger move higher, at least not yet. So I'm going for a hold on next week FOMC, you?
