Short answer in advance: In a scenario in which Gaddafi had remained in power after 2011 and Libya had introduced a real gold standard (or a gold-backed dinar currency), the economic and monetary situation by 2026 would be expected to be significantly more stable and significantly better inflationary than in real Libya history and than in most fiat-based countries. The differences would be especially large in terms of purchasing power, currency stability, and cumulative oil revenues—while the system’s ongoing political and structural problems persist simultaneously. 1. Initial situation and scenario assumptions •Real history: Gaddafi was overthrown in 2011. After that, civil wars followed, state collapse (East-West division), massive oil production collapses, high inflation peaks, and a sharp loss of purchasing power. Before 2011, oil production was approximately 1.6–1.7 million barrels per day, GDP per capita was among the highest in Africa, and the HDI was the best on the continent. Inflation was mostly in the low single digits in the late Gaddafi years. • Assumptions of the counterfactual: The uprising is suppressed or a NATO intervention does not occur. Gaddafi remains in power. Libya introduces (as partially planned by him) a gold-backed dinar or strictly ties the currency to gold reserves (approx. 143 tons of gold + silver + oil revenues). Oil is preferred to be sold against gold or gold-backed payment instruments. The central planned economy and the socialist/authoritarian system (Jamahiriya) remain intact. 2. Inflation and currency stability until 2026 Under a gold standard, the money supply is limited in the long run by the gold supply (and the ability to acquire gold). Historically, the classic gold standard regime (circa 1870/1880–1914) led to an average inflation of about 0–0.1% per year – in stark contrast to the fiat systems after 1971 (average 3–5% and more, with strong swings). Expected impacts in Libya: •Very low or near-zero inflation over the entire period 2011–2026. No major pressure phases due to money supply expansion for war financing, subsidies, or deficits. •The dinar could have largely retained or even gained its purchasing power (especially during periods of falling gold prices relative to other goods). •In real terms, there was already 15% inflation in 2011, peaks of 25–28% in 2016/17, followed by lower rates again, but recently (2025/26) renewed periods of pressure due to devaluations and fiscal imbalances. In some reports, inflation rose noticeably again at the beginning of 2026. Comparison with other countries: Most fiat currencies experienced strong inflation spikes in 2021–2023 (energy, supply chains, expansive monetary policy). Countries such as Turkey, Argentina, or several African states had significantly higher cumulative inflation. A gold-backed Libya would have been a clear outlier here with a stable currency – similar to historically Switzerland or Germany during disciplined phases, only with the additional advantage of massive oil revenues. Probability: Very high probability (approx. 80–90%) that cumulative inflation would have been significantly lower than real and than in most comparison countries. Short-term volatility due to gold or oil price fluctuations would be possible, but no sustained devaluation.
📊 Bitcoin This Week (July 27 – August 2) Bitcoin traded in a tight range most of the week. It started around $65,000 and closed near $63,000 after a small pullback. No major crash, no big breakout — just sideways action while bigger stories played out. 📉 🏛️ The Clarity Act This is the big U.S. crypto market structure bill that would finally clarify which agency regulates what (SEC vs CFTC) and treat Bitcoin as a digital commodity. Updated text was released earlier, but the Senate did not vote on it before the August recess. Hopes for a quick passage this year have dropped. Markets are watching closely because real regulatory clarity would remove a major uncertainty for institutions. ⚙️ BIP-110 This is a completely separate story happening inside Bitcoin itself. BIP-110 is a temporary soft-fork proposal that would limit how much non-payment data (images, inscriptions, tokens, etc.) can be stored in Bitcoin transactions for one year. Supporters want to reduce blockchain “spam” and keep block space focused on money. Critics (including Michael Saylor and Adam Back) say changing consensus rules for this reason sets a dangerous precedent and risks a chain split. Miner support is still extremely low (around 1–3%). A mandatory signaling window starts in early August. Two big battles at the same time: One in Washington (Clarity Act) and one on the Bitcoin network (BIP-110). Both will shape what Bitcoin looks like in the coming months. #Bitcoin #ClarityAct #BIP110
The Clarity Act contains real ethics gaps that wealthy officials can benefit from. The current version (as of July 22, 2026) prohibits presidents, vice presidents, members of Congress and their spouses from spending or sponsoring digital assets for a fee. But: • Holding of coins as an investment remains allowed • Existing family businesses, license and revenue sharing models are not cleanly recorded • The regulation expires on January 20, 2029 (Sunset) • Enforcement is primarily at the Ministry of Justice Sources: The Block, Bitcoin Magazine, Senate text. Specific figures: According to his own Financial Disclosures, Trump has taken in over $1.4 billion from crypto business in 2025. Of which, among others: • approx. $800 million via World Liberty Financial • approx. $635 million from the $TRUMP memecoin (license/royalty model) Source: Reuters / U.S. Office of Government Ethics Disclosure (June 2026). Senator Elizabeth Warren and Transparency International U.S. sharply criticize the clause: Warren: The provisions are „riddled with major loopholes“ and will not prevent Trump from continuing to earn hundreds of millions. Transparency International: The text does not stop the main ways in which the $1.4 billion was generated (family entities, license rights, name/likeness use). The sunset clause and DOJ enforcement further weaken the regulation. Sources: Warren Statement (Senate Banking Committee, 22.07.2026) + Transparency International U.S. Statement on the same day. Conclusion: The Clarity Act brings important structural clarity for the crypto market (CFTC/SEC distinction, developer protection etc.). At the same time, the ethics regulation remains so constructed that existing personal and family profit streams of officials remain largely untouched and are limited in time. This is not a conspiracy - this is stated in the legislative text and in the public criticism statements. Those who support the Act should at least know these gaps and discuss them transparently.
🇺🇸MICHAEL SAYLOR: “WORKING HARD IS THE WORST ADVICE YOU CAN GET.” “AI WILL OUTWORK YOU.” “ROBOTS WILL OUTWORK YOU.” “YOUR SKILLS ARE BEING DEMONETIZED.” “YOUR LABOR IS LOSING VALUE EVERY SINGLE DAY.” THE PEOPLE WHO KEEP SELLING THEIR TIME WILL STRUGGLE. THE PEOPLE WHO OWN SCARCE ASSETS WILL WIN. THIS IS WHY I’M ALL IN ON BITCOIN. YOU CAN ALWAYS PRINT MORE MONEY. YOU CAN ALWAYS BUILD MORE COMPANIES. YOU CAN NEVER CREATE MORE THAN 21 MILLION BITCOIN. THE WORLD IS CHANGING FASTER THAN MOST PEOPLE REALIZE. ADAPT… OR GET LEFT BEHIND. https://t.co/LjuHUsktJt