CNBC | Core inflation hit an annual rate of 3.3% in April, as expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

"Sticky inflation." That's the phrase doing the work in every central bank press conference right now. The macro trend over the last 18 months is disinflationary. Every counter-rally gets called a return of inflation. Every print that ticks up gets framed as the regime change back. @realDhruvSuri's read: the framing is deliberate. A sticky-inflation narrative justifies a slower easing path and keeps options open for the next major monetary architecture shift. A crisis brings the solution that gets accepted. The story is doing strategy, not analysis. Worth watching what is actually under the print, not what is said about it.

⚠️ US #PCE Price Index YoY Actual 3.8% (Forecast 3.8%, Previous 3.5%) US PCE Price Index MoM Actual 0.4% (Forecast 0.5%, Previous 0.7%) US Core PCE Price Index YoY Actual 3.3% (Forecast 3.3%, Previous 3.2%) US Core PCE Price Index MoM Actual 0.2% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.3%) #crypto

Inflation is the key constraint behind this rally. US equities are pushing to new highs, but CPI and PCE are both back at 3.8% YoY. That makes the Fed’s job harder: - rate cuts become harder to justify, - long-end yields stay important, - and risk assets need stronger narratives to keep climbing. Right now, the market is leaning on AI, earnings, and geopolitical relief. But if inflation stays hot, the liquidity backdrop can tighten fast.

1/3 🧵BBX Market Watch — May 28 US equities pushed to new highs, even as the macro data stayed uncomfortable. - Dow: 50,668.97, +0.05% - S&P 500: 7,563.63, +0.58%, new ATH - Nasdaq: 26,917.47, +0.91%, new ATH April PCE inflation came in hot: - Headline PCE: +3.8% YoY - Core PCE: +3.3% YoY That keeps pressure on the Fed and makes rate cuts harder to justify. At the same time, growth was revised lower: - Q1 GDP: revised down to 1.6% - Consumer spending: revised down to 1.4% So the market is dealing with a difficult mix: - inflation still too high, - growth losing momentum, - and the Fed still constrained. This was not a “perfect macro” rally. It was a market choosing to look through weak data because other narratives are still strong. #PCE #GDP #SPY #QQQ

The 2020s are now one of the most inflationary decades in history: US CPI has averaged 4.0% so far in the 2020s, the highest decade average since the 1980s. This is more than DOUBLE the average of the 2010s, at 1.8%, and well above the 1990s and 2000s. Since 1950, the only only periods with higher inflation were the 1970s and 1980s, at 7.4% and 5.1% on average, respectively. This comes as inflation has been above 2.0% for 64 of the 76 months so far this decade, peaking at 9.1% in June 2022. By comparison, during the 2010s, inflation was above 2.0% for 49 of the 120 months, with a peak of 3.9% in September 2011. Inflation remains way too high.

JUST IN: US PCE inflation, rose to 3.8% in April, the highest since May 2023.

ECONOMIST: PH EXPERIENCING ‘SLOWFLATION’ The Philippines is experiencing what some describe as “slowflation,” according to Associate Professor Luis Dumlao, former dean of the John Gokongwei School of Management. Dumlao told #Business360 that the economy is seeing slow growth alongside high inflation. He added that the situation is not as severe as stagflation.

ECONOMIST: PH ECONOMY MAY GROW JUST UNDER 5% IN H2 The Philippine economy could grow by just under 5% in the second half of the year. Associate Prof. Luis Dumlao, former dean of the John Gokongwei School of Management, told #Business360 that growth may be slightly lower at around 4.8% to 4.9%, depending on economic conditions. He added that this outlook is based on several assumptions, including the possibility of a peace agreement in the Middle East being reached within a short period.

🚨 Markets were shaken by the latest U.S. data! 🔸 Core PCE inflation came in line with expectations at 3.3%… but all attention shifted to the clear signs of U.S. economic slowdown. 🔸 GDP registered just 1.6%, below the expected 2.0%. 🔸 Worse still, initial jobless claims rose to 215,000, increasing pressure on the dollar and financial markets. 🔸 Currently, investors are on edge: Will the Fed start considering rate cuts soon? Or will inflation continue to hold the dollar firm, preventing any easing? Clearly, heightened volatility is just beginning! #asmahencrypto