BREAKING: Anthropic is no longer expected to surpass SpaceX, $SPCX, as the largest IPO by market cap in 2026. Markets now see just a 28% chance of Anthropic being the largest IPO of the year, down from a high of 62%. This comes amid reports that Anthropic could receive a "high junk" credit rating, while OpenAI has cut its fundraising valuation target by $150 billion. Anthropic is expected to IPO this month.

US semiconductor stocks have rarely been this volatile: Over the last 5 mins S&P 500 Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index has recorded 11 trading sessions in which at least 50% of its components fell -5% or more, the 4th-highest reading on record. By comparison, during the 2008 Financial Crisis, the index recorded 16 such sessions. The only other periods with more volatility were 2000 and 2002, following the Dot-Com Bubble burst. Furthermore, the S&P 500 Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index fell more than -5% on 12 trading days over the last 5 months. The index is now down -32% from its June peak, trading at its lowest level since April. Semiconductor stocks are experiencing historic volatility.

It's officially election day. History says stocks are heading higher. In fact, the S&P 500 has closed GREEN in the year following every US Midterm election since 1980. As we noted in our analysis yesterday, we believe recent weakness in markets is largely a function of the uncertainty around Midterm elections. However, when this uncertainty dissipates, markets react positively. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has averaged a +14% gain in the 12 months following US Midterm elections. Furthermore, even after divided-government outcomes, the index has averaged a +15% one-year gain, compared to +12% under single-party control. Of course, the near-term picture will come with volatility and change. But, if history is any guide, it's a great time to be bullish. Turn on our post notifications at @KobeissiLetter for real-time analysis as this develops.

AI infrastructure spending is driving a sharp increase in US bank lending: Commercial and Industrial (C&I) loans at large US banks surged +11.4% YoY in October, to $1.6 trillion, the most since June 2020. This also marked their largest YoY growth since February 2023. In Q3, C&I loans at the 25 largest US banks grew almost +10.0% YoY, the strongest growth in 10 years excluding pandemic-related swings. This represents a sharp reversal from an -8.0% YoY contraction in Q4 2025. The surge has been driven by rising borrowing demand from Big Tech companies and data-center developers to fund AI infrastructure projects. At the same time, regional lenders are providing credit to construction companies and other businesses benefiting from the investment boom. The data-center buildout is increasingly being funded by debt.

Leverage is skyrocketing in this market: US leveraged ETFs have attracted +$15 billion in inflows over the last month, their largest 1-month rolling inflow in at least 2 years. This marks a sharp reversal from -$2 billion seen in early October. By comparison, during the April 2025 market recovery, this figure peaked at +$12 billion. The surge has been primarily led by retail investor demand for leveraged tech equity ETFs. The 3x leveraged long Semiconductor ETF, $SOXL, alone attracted +$7.3 billion in October, its largest monthly inflow on record. Retail investors are aggressively piling into leveraged equity ETFs.

What's happening now in the stock market is more than just a "correction in tech stocks." Sure, AI CapEx concerns are legitimate and investors will always care about profitability. But, there's more beneath the surface here. The reality is that the market is pricing-in a major shift in the political landscape of the US. Over the last 12 months, market expectations for a Democrat "sweep" of the US Midterm elections have tripled. Over the last 45 days alone, these expectations are up +30 percentage points. As it stands, markets themselves now see a near-80% chance of a Democrat "sweep" of the US Midterm elections. President Trump has already vowed to become "Mr. Veto" if this in fact does happen. This is post is not political, it's objective. A change in the political landscape always comes with uncertainty; markets hate uncertainty. Objectively, the market is in the process of pricing-in two years of political gridlock. Could this change? Of course. But markets price-in the most probable outcome, and the odds now overwhelmingly favor the aforementioned scenario. Tomorrow sets the stage for the next two years.

BREAKING: Alphabet, $GOOGL, Meta, $META, Microsoft, $MSFT, Amazon, $AMZN, and Oracle, $ORCL, have now disclosed a record $3.3 trillion in future spending commitments. These are off-balance-sheet commitments covering data-center spending, future equipment purchases, leases, and other obligations. $GOOGL accounts for the largest amount at $1.06 trillion, with its disclosed commitments surging nearly +700% over the last year. $META follows at $866 billion, with nearly half tied to data-center leases that have not yet commenced and payment periods extending up to 30 years. Meanwhile, Microsoft, $MSFT, has $593 billion in commitments, followed by Amazon, $AMZN, at $453 billion, and Oracle, $ORCL, at $322 billion. The AI infrastructure buildout is creating an unprecedented pipeline of future financial obligations.

BREAKING: Oracle stock, $ORCL, falls over -5% after announcing plans to raise $20 billion through equity and debt issuances to fund its AI buildout. The stock is now down -54% from this year's high. https://t.co/oWJntBH8xS

BREAKING: US retirement assets surged +$3.8 trillion in Q2 2026, or +7.9%, to a record $51.2 trillion. The increase was led by assets in individual retirement accounts (IRAs), which jumped +$1.7 trillion, or +9.2%, to $19.9 trillion, an all-time high. Defined contribution (DC) plan assets also rose +$1.2 trillion, or +8.7%, to a record $15.0 trillion. Government defined benefit (DB) plan assets increased +$508 billion, or +5.1%, to a record $10.4 trillion, while private-sector DB plan assets rose +$224 billion, or +7.5%, to $3.2 trillion, their 3rd-highest on record. Since 2022, total US retirement assets have soared +$16 trillion, or +45.5%. Asset owners are seeing unprecedented gains.

BREAKING: South Korea’s economy grew +1.0% QoQ in Q3 2026, marking its 3rd consecutive quarterly expansion, beating expectations of +0.8%. Exports were the main driver, rising +2.3% on stronger semiconductor, machinery and electrical equipment shipments. Facility investment surged +4.1%, particularly reflecting increased spending on machinery, including semiconductor manufacturing equipment. YoY, South Korea's economy grew +3.4%, exceeding expectations of +3.0% and following +3.7% and +3.8% growth in Q2 and Q3, respectively. South Korea is now on track to surpass $1 trillion in annual exports for the first time in 2026, making it only the 4th economy after the US, China, and Germany to reach this threshold. South Korea is seeing a historic economic transformation.