Today’s thoughts. Oil getting smoked. SPX back below 7,600. The early semis bounce faded, while momentum names are still being sold. What stands out is how little AI is getting from lower yields. Cheaper money alone isn’t enough to bring buyers back. Equal weight and small caps were holding up better on my last check. There’s still a market outside the AI trade. BTC keeps grinding lower and alts are losing ground against it. Not the response you’d want with yields falling and the dollar softer on the day. Tomorrow is midterms. A consensus outcome doesn’t guarantee a clean market reaction. I’m skeptical of how much diplomatic progress oil is pricing in. Talks are ongoing, but there’s no breakthrough yet. That’s different from saying every headline is bullshit. Also wouldn’t call lower yields a pure growth scare. Oil is taking inflation pressure off but mostly it’s running into ssfe heaven aka long bonds. Oil interests me for a tactical bounce if it stabilizes. The risk to that trade is straightforward: real diplomatic progress could take more premium out. For a longer horizon, I’m looking for cash-generative businesses at sensible prices. In crypto, $HYPE stays on my watchlist.

update for bitcoin:native outlook. The forever resilient 80k lvl is finally fucked after CZ raped us again. What is interesting? The sell-off of brypto land is not so heavy as everyone was expecting which is fine but not when the correlation is picking up dramatically after the SPX doomed through magic line aka 7600$ (negative territory) together with worst credit spread hitting tape and vol also elevated. We are heading into the mid-terms next week, I'd like to see BTC chopping around 76ish with quick wicked into 73ish where is also LVN (low volume node) and boomers line. If there will be decent reaction quick snap-shoot back above 76 it could be decent entry for some period otherwise close below 73k is in my opinion very cook-ish scenario. Happy weekend to everyone!

October 29 Yesterday’s leaders are getting tested this morning. SOXX closed up 2.13%, but it’s giving back roughly 2% premarket. QQQ is red too. After earnings, I’m mostly watching whether buyers show up once cash opens. The AI bull case still has backing. Azure grew 48%, Google Cloud 103%. Oracle is targeting $30B+ in FCF for FY2029. That last number is still a management target, but the path to funding growth and generating actual cash is exactly what I want to follow. I get Degen’s compute thesis. With neoclouds, though, I need to separate delayed deliveries, financing problems and weaker demand. Those mean very different things for the stock. One capex headline also tells me very little without a comparable reporting basis. Macro has eased a little: oil around $102, the 10-year just below 5%. Still high. The Fed held, with two members voting for a hike. I’m not getting an easy-money story from that. Breadth gives me another reason to stay selective. Yesterday SPY gained 0.34%, while equal weight went essentially nowhere. Vol, credit and breadth filters remain negative. The latest spread tightening is encouraging, but it doesn’t reset the whole regime. Crypto is even more selective. Only 5 of 20 tracked coins are above their 50DMA. That was 9 a week ago and 19 a month ago. Weekly OI is down 3.1%, while funding has turned positive again. I’m missing the participation needed for a broad altseason call. XMR stands out; most of the market still has work to do. Options are interesting too. A low BTC/ETH IV percentile doesn’t automatically mean cheap vol. bitcoin:native IV is around 35%, versus recent realized vol near 24%. A low percentile alone isn’t enough for me to buy options. Today I’m watching whether semis find a bid, whether breadth improves, and SNDK after the close. For crypto longs, I want specific relative strength backed by spot buying.

Btw, I noticed some pretty unusual activity on the $PURR options tape yesterday. There was a massive single print on the $10 calls with a hefty premium behind it. Could be nothing, but given today's ICE news, the timing is kinda sus lol. thanks @degentradingLSD https://t.co/dOFGWPFiHP

BTC sneezes, alts need life support. Last 6H: BTC -0.22%. All 20 alts in my fixed basket red. Every single one underperformed BTC. Volume picked up. Sellers did the heavy lifting. Weekend casino open. Broad participation on holiday.

WEEK AHEAD | OCT 19–23 AI infra down ~16% in a week while the WMT/KO crowd gets to enjoy their weekend. Fair enough Nasdaq lost roughly 4.5%, SPX around 2%. Optical names and neoclouds got properly rinsed, and by Friday software was getting dragged down with semis too. Monday’s early bounce is nice. I’m still watching whether it survives the cash open.

$BTC spot selling hard while OI keeps climbing. Funding still positive. Corn adding leverage while losing altitude. Looks like fuel building for a bigger move. If spot keeps dumping, shorts can pile in and press this lower. If buyers absorb it and reclaim the breakdown, those late shorts become fuel instead.

near:native back at the key $5.55–5.65 S/R after rejecting $6. Expecting buyers to show up here. Hold and bounce, breakout still alive. Lose it and accept back inside the old range, $4.8 starts looking like max pain, chunky long liqs sitting there on Hyperliquid too. https://t.co/AhiBwVayI2

Opened $NVDA, $MU, $SNDK + $SOXL. Back in the chip trenches. Cut my $SMH and other AI/semi exposure in profit last Thursday via ATR rules. The flush has now brought us into the key areas where I wanted to rebuild. What I like: better entry levels, continued interest in the AI buildout, and potential for a sharp bounce if the selling pressure eases. $NVDA for broader AI exposure, $MU / $SNDK for memory, $SOXL for the tactical juice. Some of this selloff may be positioning-driven, but earnings and China memory competition remain risks. Building gradually, staying nimble. Levels fail, I'm out.

$BTC update where my head is at after the last post: 1) Finally, a proper leverage flush. We got massive long liquidations after quite a while. Unless we’re dealing with another October 10 last year type of event, these flushes can be decent spots to start taking risk while everyone else is getting rekt. A bunch of leveraged longs got washed out, which can leave the market in a healthier state. OI has been coming down too, but that cuts both ways: less leverage is good, less appetite to participate isn’t necessarily bullish. A cleaner market still needs buyers. 2) Same key zone: $82–80k. Been mentioning this one for ages. Every CT maestro now has the same fucking box on their chart lol. Obvious level, plenty of eyes on it but being obvious doesn’t guarantee it holds but for now yes. 3) Yesterday’s local low landed right in that zone. The daily 50 SMA is sitting around there too, but daily momentum is still chopping around its average. Pretty flip-flop conditions. No clean directional signal yet. 4) Spot bids aren’t convincing me yet. The spot orderbook isn’t as loaded as I expected. In the attached depth screenshot, bids have only slowly built to around $22.4m. Some support showing up, but I’d like to see more size and buyers actually absorbing the selling. 5) ETFs are selling again. Over $700m in net outflows across the last two days. A leverage flush helps, but persistent spot selling can still make the dip-buying party pretty fucking miserable. 6) I’m still flat on swings. Majors’ price action remains uninspiring. Meanwhile, specific alts keep pumping because people still WANT to gamble. A few casino runners don’t convince me the broader market is healthy. 7) My plan stays conditional. If BTC starts consolidating here, spot bids show real support and ETF flows turn back to buying, I have no problem buying higher. Happy to pay up once the market gives me something clearer. Until then, I can see a squeeze toward the area where the sell-off started. I’ll watch the reaction there: a rejection could offer a short with clean invalidation; a breakout and hold above this small range could give me a long. There’s probably more to work with on lower timeframes right now. During the US burger session, I suspect some options / structured-product flow might be contributing to the selling pressure, but that’s a hypothesis I can’t confirm call selling from price action alone. If we keep defending $82–80k and get the better R/R shown in the last screenshot, I might stab a small long. Still need a clear invalidation otherwise if we lose 50 Daily SMA and this zone then expecting rotation back to mid 70s. TLDR: First leverage flush is behind us. Now comes the harder part: seeing whether real buyers show up. Mixed confluence on both sides, so I’m keeping risk small and letting the reaction decide. No need to force a swing just because some longs got rekt.