$BTC update where my head is at after the last post: 1) Finally, a proper leverage flush. We got massive long liquidations after quite a while. Unless we’re dealing with another October 10 last year type of event, these flushes can be decent spots to start taking risk while everyone else is getting rekt. A bunch of leveraged longs got washed out, which can leave the market in a healthier state. OI has been coming down too, but that cuts both ways: less leverage is good, less appetite to participate isn’t necessarily bullish. A cleaner market still needs buyers. 2) Same key zone: $82–80k. Been mentioning this one for ages. Every CT maestro now has the same fucking box on their chart lol. Obvious level, plenty of eyes on it but being obvious doesn’t guarantee it holds but for now yes. 3) Yesterday’s local low landed right in that zone. The daily 50 SMA is sitting around there too, but daily momentum is still chopping around its average. Pretty flip-flop conditions. No clean directional signal yet. 4) Spot bids aren’t convincing me yet. The spot orderbook isn’t as loaded as I expected. In the attached depth screenshot, bids have only slowly built to around $22.4m. Some support showing up, but I’d like to see more size and buyers actually absorbing the selling. 5) ETFs are selling again. Over $700m in net outflows across the last two days. A leverage flush helps, but persistent spot selling can still make the dip-buying party pretty fucking miserable. 6) I’m still flat on swings. Majors’ price action remains uninspiring. Meanwhile, specific alts keep pumping because people still WANT to gamble. A few casino runners don’t convince me the broader market is healthy. 7) My plan stays conditional. If BTC starts consolidating here, spot bids show real support and ETF flows turn back to buying, I have no problem buying higher. Happy to pay up once the market gives me something clearer. Until then, I can see a squeeze toward the area where the sell-off started. I’ll watch the reaction there: a rejection could offer a short with clean invalidation; a breakout and hold above this small range could give me a long. There’s probably more to work with on lower timeframes right now. During the US burger session, I suspect some options / structured-product flow might be contributing to the selling pressure, but that’s a hypothesis I can’t confirm call selling from price action alone. If we keep defending $82–80k and get the better R/R shown in the last screenshot, I might stab a small long. Still need a clear invalidation otherwise if we lose 50 Daily SMA and this zone then expecting rotation back to mid 70s. TLDR: First leverage flush is behind us. Now comes the harder part: seeing whether real buyers show up. Mixed confluence on both sides, so I’m keeping risk small and letting the reaction decide. No need to force a swing just because some longs got rekt.
