Today’s thoughts. Oil getting smoked. SPX back below 7,600. The early semis bounce faded, while momentum names are still being sold. What stands out is how little AI is getting from lower yields. Cheaper money alone isn’t enough to bring buyers back. Equal weight and small caps were holding up better on my last check. There’s still a market outside the AI trade. BTC keeps grinding lower and alts are losing ground against it. Not the response you’d want with yields falling and the dollar softer on the day. Tomorrow is midterms. A consensus outcome doesn’t guarantee a clean market reaction. I’m skeptical of how much diplomatic progress oil is pricing in. Talks are ongoing, but there’s no breakthrough yet. That’s different from saying every headline is bullshit. Also wouldn’t call lower yields a pure growth scare. Oil is taking inflation pressure off but mostly it’s running into ssfe heaven aka long bonds. Oil interests me for a tactical bounce if it stabilizes. The risk to that trade is straightforward: real diplomatic progress could take more premium out. For a longer horizon, I’m looking for cash-generative businesses at sensible prices. In crypto, $HYPE stays on my watchlist.