October 29 Yesterday’s leaders are getting tested this morning. SOXX closed up 2.13%, but it’s giving back roughly 2% premarket. QQQ is red too. After earnings, I’m mostly watching whether buyers show up once cash opens. The AI bull case still has backing. Azure grew 48%, Google Cloud 103%. Oracle is targeting $30B+ in FCF for FY2029. That last number is still a management target, but the path to funding growth and generating actual cash is exactly what I want to follow. I get Degen’s compute thesis. With neoclouds, though, I need to separate delayed deliveries, financing problems and weaker demand. Those mean very different things for the stock. One capex headline also tells me very little without a comparable reporting basis. Macro has eased a little: oil around $102, the 10-year just below 5%. Still high. The Fed held, with two members voting for a hike. I’m not getting an easy-money story from that. Breadth gives me another reason to stay selective. Yesterday SPY gained 0.34%, while equal weight went essentially nowhere. Vol, credit and breadth filters remain negative. The latest spread tightening is encouraging, but it doesn’t reset the whole regime. Crypto is even more selective. Only 5 of 20 tracked coins are above their 50DMA. That was 9 a week ago and 19 a month ago. Weekly OI is down 3.1%, while funding has turned positive again. I’m missing the participation needed for a broad altseason call. XMR stands out; most of the market still has work to do. Options are interesting too. A low BTC/ETH IV percentile doesn’t automatically mean cheap vol. bitcoin:native IV is around 35%, versus recent realized vol near 24%. A low percentile alone isn’t enough for me to buy options. Today I’m watching whether semis find a bid, whether breadth improves, and SNDK after the close. For crypto longs, I want specific relative strength backed by spot buying.