Weekly Crypto Market Decoded_20250624

Summary

• Geopolitical conflicts remain the biggest short-term uncertainty facing the cryptocurrency market.As the situation continues to escalate, market panic spreads, leading to a surge in panic selling. BTC quickly falls below the first support level and tests the second support line.The distribution of chips shows that although panic has intensified, long-term chip confidence remains.The current risk alert has not been lifted, and future volatility will depend on key factors such as the scale of Iran's retaliation, US countermeasures, shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz, and progress in US Iran negotiations.These geopolitical variables may trigger severe market volatility, and investors need to be alert to risks and closely monitor the development of the situation.
• The passage of the GENIUS stablecoin bill will have a more positive impact than the Bitcoin Reserve Act, including: 1) reshaping the stablecoin market landscape;2) Promote the explosion of encrypted payments;3) Provide a foundation for the rapid development of RWA;4) Bring opportunities for trading expansion in sectors such as public chains, DeFi, RWA, etc;5) Accelerate the approval process of cryptocurrency ETFs;6) Triggering a wave of cryptocurrency IPOs and driving the wealth effect of cryptocurrency stocks.

2. Key Events

2.1 The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged as scheduled, Powell's speech is hawkish, and Fed officials have significant differences on interest rate cuts

• 6.18- Retail sales in the United States decreased by 0.9% month on month in May, marking the largest decline in two years.
• 6.18- The Bank of Japan maintains interest rates unchanged.
• 6.19- The Federal Reserve continues to maintain interest rates unchanged, and the dot plot shows that it is still expected to cut interest rates twice this year, but the number of officials who hope not to cut interest rates has increased.
• 6.19- Powell: The economy is in a stable state, with inflation levels consistently slightly above 2%. This year's tariff increase may put pressure on economic activity and push up inflation.Faced with uncertainty, the Federal Reserve will remain patient
• 6.20- Bank of England maintains interest rates unchanged
• 6.23- Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that interest rate cuts may occur as early as the July meeting.Federal Reserve officials say it is too early to assess the impact of tariffs on the economy.
• 6.23- Trump criticizes Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, stating that if interest rates are cut to 1-2%, the United States could save trillions of dollars annually.

2.2 Tariffs：There has been no substantial progress on tariffs this week; there are still two weeks left until July 9th, and it is expected that the impact of tariffs on the market will rebound

• 6.17- The EU is prepared to accept a conditional 10% tariff from the United States
• 6.17- The United States and the United Kingdom reach a tariff reduction trade agreement, benefiting key industries, but steel tariffs have not yet been relaxed.
• 6.19- Federal Reserve Chairman Powell mentioned that this year's tariff increase may have an impact on economic activity and inflation.
• 6.23- Federal Reserve officials state that they are currently unable to assess the comprehensive impact of tariffs on the economy.

2.3 Geopolitical Conflict: US airstrikes on Iran escalate conflict, Iranian parliament approves closure of Strait of Hormuz, further escalating tensions

• 6.16- US President Trump expresses no intention of signing the joint statement proposed by the G7 to call for a downgrade of the conflict between Israel and Iran
• 6.16- Trump: Everyone should evacuate Tehran immediately;Trump asks officials to be prepared in the war room
• 6.17- The Israeli military claims to have killed the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces;Iranian military says it will intensify attacks on Israel
• 6.17- Trump warns the United States of running out of patience in consecutive posts, calls on Iran to "surrender unconditionally", and is considering striking Iran
• 6.18- Trump: Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons, that's all.The goal is to end the Middle East conflict as soon as possible.The door to dialogue with Iran has not been closed yet
• 6.19- White House: Trump will decide within two weeks whether to attack Iran
• 6.20- Trump: Successfully bombed three major Iranian nuclear facilities, including Fordo, which no longer exists in Iran. If Iran does not stop the war, it will strike again
• 6.21- US Vice President Vance: Don't worry about this becoming a protracted conflict, US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities provides an opportunity to restart US Iran relations
• 6.22- The Iranian parliament approves the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision is in the hands of Iran's Supreme National Security Council

3. Equity & Crypto Market Performance

3.1 Geopolitical risks and policy expectations are intertwined, the US stock market is cautiously oscillating

• This week, under the dual suppression of the sudden escalation of geopolitical tensions and the hawkish signals released by the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, market risk appetite has significantly declined, and investor sentiment has become cautious.The sudden disturbance of geopolitical conflicts was concentrated over the weekend, and the US stock market was not immediately impacted by trading timeliness. The three major indices showed a differentiated trend: the S&P 500 index fell slightly by 0.15%, the Nasdaq Composite index closed slightly up 0.21%, and the Russell 2000 small cap index performed relatively strongly, rising 0.42%.The volatility of the commodity market has intensified, with international crude oil prices closing up 1.44% on a weekly basis, but safe haven asset gold unexpectedly came under pressure, with a weekly decline of 1.84%.

3.2 The cryptocurrency market has become a "barometer" for the escalation of geopolitical conflicts

• Against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical conflicts, the cryptocurrency market exhibits distinct "message driven" characteristics, and with the advantage of 24/7 uninterrupted trading, it has become the "forefront" for global risk aversion transmission.This week, the market experienced severe volatility, with BTC falling below key levels one after another: first falling below the first support level of $103000, then further dropping to the second support level of $98000 due to the news of Iran's plan to close the Strait of Hormuz. Finally, the weekly closing fell 4.36%, reflecting the continued nervousness of investors.

3.3 The market trading is sluggish,and the liquidity is poor

4. BTC Trend Analysis

4.1 Short term panic selling intensifies, confidence still exists in the long term

• This week, a total of 285000 BTC were reduced in Bitcoin holdings, an increase of about 30000 compared to last week, indicating an intensification of market panic. A total of 102000 BTC were sold below the price of Bitcoin, a decrease of about 70000 compared to last week. Long term profitable chip selling pressure has decreased, and long-term confidence remains.Short term chips in the 106K-110K range have significantly decreased, or panic and reduce holdings after falling below key support levels.Buying orders are concentrated in the two price ranges of 101K and 104K, with a significant increase in holdings. From the perspective of past micro strategy holding costs, $101K may be the lowest price for retail investors, while $104K may be the cost for institutions to regularly increase holdings.

4.2 The first level support has been broken. Secondary strong support shows significant effectiveness

• Affected by market panic, Bitcoin quickly fell below the first support level of $104K and reached the second support range of $98.5K.From the performance of the market, the second support level shows strong buying acceptance, which may slow down the downward trend in the short term;If bears continue to exert pressure, the third support band of $93-94K will become a key defense line to determine whether the market has completely turned bearish.
• The 104K-106K range above has formed a short-term important resistance level due to the dense historical transactions.However, as the main holding entities in this region are institutions and whale funds, their chip structure is relatively stable. If market sentiment rebounds, actual selling pressure may be weaker than expected.

4.3 Market Summary and Outlook: Be alert to the impact of key geopolitical events

• Overall, geopolitical conflicts remain the biggest short-term uncertainty facing the cryptocurrency market.As the situation continues to escalate, market panic spreads, leading to a surge in panic selling and falling below the first support level.However, the current situation has not yet reached the worst-case scenario, and the risk alert has not been lifted yet.In the short term, market volatility will be mainly driven by the scale of Iran's retaliatory actions, subsequent military response measures by the United States, whether Iran's top leadership will block the Strait of Hormuz, and the progress of key geopolitical events such as the outcome of negotiations between Iran and the United States. Any of these events will trigger severe market volatility.

5. Regulatory Trends

• The GENIUS Act has been passed in the Senate, taking a crucial step towards regulating stablecoins
• Ohio unanimously passes the Bitcoin Rights Act
• Arizona Bitcoin Reserve Bill Passed Senate Approval
• Wyoming announces launch of WYST stablecoin mainnet on August 20th

• Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission approves BGE virtual asset trading platform license application
• The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that it will accelerate the processing of applications for stablecoin licenses
• South Korean regulatory authorities launch investigation into transaction fees on centralized exchanges
• The Financial Services Commission of South Korea is working on developing a roadmap for the development of virtual asset ETFs
• Thai Cabinet approves five-year tax exemption policy for cryptocurrency trading profits
• Bank of Thailand issues digital banking licenses to three institutions

• UK plans to introduce restrictions on banks' exposure to encrypted assets next year

6. Major Industry Events: Policy Compliance as Industry Catalyst: US-Asia Stablecoin/ETF Race Reshapes Finance

• The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will accelerate the processing of applications for stablecoin licenses
• The GENIUS Act in the United States has been passed in the Senate, and progress has been made in stablecoin legislation
• JD plans to apply for stablecoin licenses in major currency countries around the world
• Wyoming to launch WYST stablecoin mainnet on August 20th
• Paxos establishes Paxos Labs to assist institutions in accessing DeFi and issuing customized stablecoins

• CoinShares submits S-1 application for spot Solana ETF
• VanEck spot Solana ETF (VSOL) has been registered with DTCC
• Bloomberg analysts increase spot XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano ETF approval probability to 90%
• The Financial Services Commission of South Korea has formulated a roadmap for the launch of virtual asset ETFs
• SEC delays decision on staking options for Franklin spot Ethereum ETF

• Tron (owned by Sun Yuchen) plans to seek listing in the United States
• There are reports that OKX is considering seeking a listing in the United States
• MicroStrategy acquires 10100 BTC for $1.05 billion (average price $104080)
• Metaplanet issues $210 million bond to increase holdings of Bitcoin
• JPMorgan Chase applies for encryption trademark "JPMD" and pilots deposit token on Base Chain
• Meta、Amazon and Microsoft say they do not accept Bitcoin as a company reserve asset
• Davis Commodities (NASDAQ listed) launches $30 million growth plan, with 40% allocated for Bitcoin reserves
• K33 launches 85 million Swedish kronor stock issuance plan to increase holdings of 1000 BTC
• Eyenovica invests $50 million to establish HYPE reserves, and the company is renamed "Hyperion DeFi"
• BlackRock bought over $750 million worth of ETH in June and did not sell it
• other
• Trump Organization launches' Made in America 'Trump phone, priced at $499
• Pump.fun token auction postponed to mid July, valued at approximately $4 billion

8. Reference

• defillama.com
• coinmarketcap.com
• tradingview.com
• cryptoslam.io
• token.unlocks.app/
• dune.com
• itez.com/events
• cryptorank.io/