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Chasing crypto market trends and analyzing event impacts

This week, Bitcoin ended its three-week downward trend, rising 2.67%, and formed new support at the 108k–112k range. However, short-term panic selling pressure still dominates the market, with 113k and 117k constituting key resistance levels. On-chain data shows a decrease in token turnover activity, with market sentiment tending towards caution; institutional holdings show signs of recovery, but ETF inflows remain weak, not yet sufficient to support a new round of uptrend. If the price falls below 108k, it will exacerbate panic and accelerate the downtrend, while breaking through 117k is a necessary condition for strengthening bullish logic. ETH continues to weaken, with significant outflow pressure from ETFs, but reserve company buying still partially supports demand. Overall, the crypto market remains in a short-term consolidation phase, and confidence recovery depends on improvements in macroeconomic data and a rebound in capital inflows.

The non-farm employment data is weak. Reinforcing expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September

Several economic indicators in the United States have continued to be weak, with the job market and manufacturing sector performing below expectations, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

The market has shifted from a debate over "whether to cut interest rates" to "how many times interest rates will be cut within the year", which has simultaneously triggered concerns about economic recession.

9.2 - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: Fed Governor Nominee Brainard Likely to Take Office Before September Fed Meeting

9.2 - In August, the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in the United States was 53, lower than both the previous value and expectations; the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August in the United States was 48.7, also lower than expectations

9.3 -- U.S. JOLTs positions in July were 1.781 million, lower than the previous value and expectations

9.4 - Federal Reserve Beige Book: Most Districts Report Stagnant Economy

9.4 - In August, the ADP employment report in the United States showed a figure of 54,000, compared to the expected 65,000

9.5 - After seasonal adjustment, the non-farm payroll in the United States increased by 22,000 in August, which was lower than the market expectation of 75,000

9.5 - The unemployment rate in the United States recorded 4.3% in August, in line with market expectations, marking a new high since October 2021

9.5 - Fed's megaphone: Non-farm payroll report almost confirms a rate cut in September, but the debate over subsequent rate cuts is more complicated

9.5 - The pool of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair has narrowed down to three, with Trump reiterating his support for Hassett for the position

CME FedWatch Tool – Fed Meeting Rate Probability Forecast Summary

The sluggish employment data has reinforced expectations of interest rate cuts, 

Cautious sentiment emerges amidst the volatility of US stocks

The weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data reinforced market bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driving the yields of 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds down by 3.1% and 3.6% respectively, which in turn boosted the performance of US stocks. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose by 0.33% and 1.14% respectively, while the small-cap Russell 2000 rose by 1.04%, continuing to outperform the broader market. Meanwhile, the VIX index fluctuated narrowly around 15, reflecting investors' continued caution. It is worth noting that US stocks opened higher but closed lower after the non-farm payroll report, indicating that while the weak employment data supported the expectation of a rate cut, it also exacerbated recession concerns. Whether subsequent economic data can validate the precautionary rate cut in September will be key to influencing market sentiment.

Figure 1: Nasdaq & S&P 500 & U.S. Treasury Bond Trends

Weekly Crypto Market Decoded_20250909

Although the cryptocurrency market experienced a correction this week, the overall risk remains controllable. On-chain data indicates that 108k–109k is a crucial support level, and a drop below 107.4k could trigger further panic. Bitcoin's market capitalization dominance remains around 58%, showing that funds still have confidence in the core asset. In contrast, ETH has performed relatively resiliently during the correction, with continuous capital inflows, reinforcing its status as an altcoin bellwether. The overall market capitalization of altcoins has remained stable amidst Bitcoin's correction, and market sentiment is significantly better than in similar situations before. Market trading volume has remained high without significant amplification, indicating that selling pressure has not caused systemic panic. Overall, the capital structure is stable, mainstream assets have strong absorptive capacity, fear of selling pressure is prominent, and the probability of market volatility is relatively high. If the overall market stabilizes, market sentiment is expected to rebound, and altcoins may experience a corrective rally.

2. The core PCE meets expectations,"Maintain the path of interest rate cuts in September"

The core PCE met expectations, solidifying the path of interest rate cuts in September; 

Trump's dismissal of a Federal Reserve governor raises concerns about the independence of the Fed; 

NVIDIA's financial report cooled down the market;

8.26 - US President Trump: Dismiss Fed Governor Cook

8.26 - US President Trump threatens to impose tariffs on countries imposing digital taxes

8.27 - NVIDIA's performance exceeded expectations, but revenue outlook was slightly flat

8.28 - The revised annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP in the United States for the second quarter was 3.3%, higher than expected

8.28 - The revised annualized quarterly rate of the US core PCE price index for the second quarter was 2.5%, lower than expected

8.29 - The core PCE annual rate in the United States recorded 2.9%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value

8.29 - US judge did not make a ruling on the case of Trump's dismissal of Cook in court, and Cook will temporarily remain in his position

8.29 - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August in the United States was 58.2, lower than expected

8.29 - The final value of the one-year inflation rate expectation in the United States for August was 4.8%, lower than expected

9.1 - The US M2 money supply has reached a record high of $22.12 trillion

3.1 The US stock market has been experiencing low volatility, Investors are cautious

The positive effect of the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut quickly subsided this week, coupled with Nvidia's earnings guidance failing to effectively reinforce the narrative of AI, leading to a continued sell-off in technology stocks. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell slightly by 0.10% and 0.19% respectively, while the small-cap index, the Russell 2000, rose 0.19%, continuing to outperform the broader market, reflecting the shift of funds from technology stocks to higher-risk assets amid the backdrop of impending interest rate cuts and AI valuation issues. Meanwhile, the VIX index remained low near 15, with cautious market sentiment.

Weekly Crypto Market Decoded_20250902

This week, the trend of Bitcoin was highly correlated with that of the US stock market. After repeatedly testing the support level of $112,000 at the beginning of the week, it was stimulated by Powell's dovish remarks and rose to $117,000 in the short term. However, it fell back to around $113,000 due to pressure over the weekend, with increasing divergence between bulls and bears. On-chain data showed that short-term unwind positions and long-term profit-taking positions formed the main selling pressure. Institutional holdings increased slowly, and Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced continuous net outflows, indicating weak core buying. ETH hit a four-year high driven by optimistic expectations for monetary policy and corporate reserves. Institutional allocation was solid, but corporate reserves could not fully reverse the overall market trend in the long term due to their low-frequency and large-scale characteristics. Since July, the increase in the market capitalization share of Altcoins has mainly been concentrated in ETH itself, with limited capital diffusion. The overall market capitalization of the crypto market has slightly declined, and trading activity still exists, but it lacks sustained incremental capital support, resulting in significant differentiation in market risk appetite.

2. Powell's speech was a disappointment,Expectations for interest rate cuts surged in September

2.1 The credit rating of the United States remains stable, inflation expectations are moderate, and expectations for interest rate cuts in September have surged. It is expected that interest rates will be cut twice within the year

8.19 - Fed's mouthpiece: Overall PCE inflation rate expected to be moderate in July, with year-on-year growth remaining at 2.6%

8.20 - Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Most members believe that inflation risks outweigh employment risks, and the overall US economy remains resilient

8.20 - Trump criticizes Powell again, urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates

8.20 - Standard & Poor's confirmed the US sovereign rating of "AA+/A-1+", with a stable outlook

8.21 - Fitch confirms the US rating as "AA+", with a stable outlook

8.21 - Fed's mouthpiece: A few officials hinted that they may join the rate-cutting camp in September

8.22 - Fed's Collins: If the outlook for the labor market worsens, it may be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short term

8.22 - Powell delivers a speech at Jackson Hole

2.2 Powell's policy tone: neutral with a dovish tilt;The risk of employment outweighs the risk of inflation

Macroeconomics and Policy Stance: Coexistence of Stagnation and Inflation Risks, Requiring Adjustment of Monetary Stance Based on Changes in Risk Balance

Labor market: The peculiar equilibrium state resulting from a significant slowdown in both labor supply and demand. This indicates that the downside risks to employment are escalating, and the unemployment rate could surge rapidly.

Inflationary situation: The inflationary effect of tariffs is unlikely to be lasting, nor will it lead to an upward shift in inflation expectations.

Monetary policy stance: The baseline outlook and evolving balance of risks may necessitate adjustments to the monetary stance.

Second: The monetary policy framework returns to normalization: a 2% inflation target + a broad maximum employment goal

Inflation Target: Return to a 2% inflation target regime, removing the average phrasing

Employment Objective: Return to a more flexible and broader "maximum employment" objective. Considering the lagging nature of monetary policy, in order to prevent inflation, the Federal Reserve should tighten monetary policy before the labor market enters a tight situation.

Weekly Crypto Market Decoded_20250826

This week, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant fluctuations, driven primarily by macroeconomic data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data propelled Bitcoin to a record high of $124.4K, but subsequent economic data falling short of expectations triggered a correction. BTC ended the week down 1.58% (from $116.7K to $124.4K), a steeper decline than that of the US stock market, reflecting its high sensitivity to the macro environment. The chip structure indicates that the selling pressure mainly came from the reduction of 78,000 FOMO sentiment positions in the $119K-$124K range, while $11.1 million in buy orders emerged in the $117K-$118K range, providing support. If the key level of $112K can be held, the selling pressure is expected to ease. It is worth noting that Bitcoin's volatility has significantly decreased, with recent retractions after three record highs being less than 10%. The current support level of $112K aligns with historical retracement patterns. Overall, despite short-term sentiment disturbances, institutional holdings and capital inflows have provided a solid foundation for the market.

2. Inflation data is volatile, no substantial progress was made during the Trump-Putin summit

2.1 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates that the impact of inflation is within expectations, but production costs and soft inflation data have unexpectedly risen.

8.13 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States increased by 2.7% year-on-year in July, slightly lower than expected; the core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year in July, higher than expected.

8.13 - Trump: Powell should cut interest rates immediately! Consider filing a major lawsuit against him.

8.13 - US Treasury Secretary: There are fundamental problems with the Federal Reserve, and I hope to find someone who can reorganize the Fed; the Fed should consider cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September.

8.13 - The total amount of U.S. treasury bonds exceeded $37 trillion for the first time.

8.15 - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warns that the Bank of Japan is lagging behind the situation and is expected to raise interest rates to control inflation.

8.15 - In July, the annual rate of Producer Price Index (PPI) in the United States was 3.3%, with an expected value of 2.5% and a previous value of 2.4%. The monthly rate of PPI in July was 0.9%, with an expected value of 0.2%.

8.18 - US retail sales for July increased by 0.5% month-on-month, in line with expectations.

8.18 - The preliminary estimate of the one-year inflation rate in the United States for August was 4.9%, higher than both expectations and the previous value.

8.18 - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August in the United States was 58.6, lower than the previous value and expectations.

2.2 Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on steel, aluminum, and chips, made tentative contacts with Russia regarding US-Russian relations, and partially relaxed sanctions.

8.12 -- China and the United States once again suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days.

8.15 - The United States announced the expansion of the scope of steel and aluminum tariffs to include derivatives, effective from August 18

8.15 - Trump and Putin successfully met in the United States, but no substantive agreement was reached

8.15 - The United States will temporarily waive some sanctions against Russia.

8.16 - The United States announces the termination of the de minimis exemption threshold for all imported goods starting from August 29

8.18 - Trump: Next week, I will impose tariffs on steel and chips.

Weekly Crypto Market Decoded_20250819

This week, the overall market trend has been stable with a slight upward trend, benefiting from optimistic expectations for macro technology stocks, the easing of geopolitical tensions, and positive signals from the US cryptocurrency policy - Trump approved the investment of cryptocurrency assets in 401(k) retirement plans and suspended the regulation of "cutting off banking services", driving 

 to rise by 4.45% cumulatively. On-chain data shows that long-term position selling pressure has weakened, with the main selling pressure coming from short-term profit-taking and high-level unwind positions. High-level chips are quickly taken up by new funds, forming a healthy turnover, which is expected to consolidate the support at $117k–$120k and help further impact new highs. In terms of purchasing power, listed companies continue to dominate, with net inflows of funds into 

 spot ETFs, reflecting optimistic market sentiment. Despite the total market capitalization rebounding to approximately $3.93 trillion and 

 declining continuously, investors' trading willingness remains cautious, and risk appetite and sector linkage have not fully recovered. Overall, the market has solid support and potential, but short-term attention should be paid to capital flows and changes in market sentiment.

2. Trump nominated a dovish commissioner,The market is increasing its bet on a rate cut in September

2.1 The Federal Reserve's signal of interest rate cuts and Trump's nomination of dovish members have increased expectations for further cuts; corporate financial reports are positive and investment is active, dispelling concerns about economic recession

8.5 - Fed's Daley: The time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and it is more likely that there will be more than two rate cuts within the year.

8.6 - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for the United States in July was 50.1, lower than both the previous value and expectations.

8.6 - The final value of the S&P Global Services PMI for the US in July was 55.7, higher than both the previous value and expectations.

8.7 - Fed's Daley: The labor market is slowing down, tariffs only have a short-term impact, and the Fed will soon cut interest rates.

8.7 - Fed's Kashkari: Two rate cuts this year still seem appropriate.

8.7 -- White House, USA: Apple Inc. will increase its commitment to US investment by $100 billion.

8.8 - Trump nominates Stephen Millan as Federal Reserve Board member

8.8 - Waller becomes a popular candidate for the new chairman of the Federal Reserve.

8.8 - The Bank of England cuts interest rates by 25 basis points.

2.2 Technology companies increase their US investment plans to circumvent tariffs, and tariff uncertainty gradually diminishes

8.5 - The European Union will suspend its trade countermeasures against the United States for six months.

8.5 - Trump: Will significantly increase the tariffs paid by India.

8.6 - Trump interviewed at CNBC Financial Forum: Tariffs on pharmaceuticals and chips will be announced in the coming week, starting with a relatively small amount and eventually reaching 250%;

8.6 - If the EU fails to fulfill its obligations, a 35% tariff will be imposed on the EU.

Weekly Crypto Market Decoded_20250812

This week, the cryptocurrency market experienced a comprehensive correction due to the bearish impact of macro employment data, with 

 declining by 4.36% and its market capitalization share rising back to 62.17%, indicating a shift of funds back into mainstream assets for risk aversion. 

 exhibited a high degree of correlation, with Altcoins generally underperforming the market and risk appetite significantly contracting. On-chain data showed a decline in trading activity, with high-priced chips becoming concentrated, indicating that the market has entered a consolidation period. 

 has declined for two consecutive weeks, and overall sentiment has become cautious. In the short term, the cryptocurrency market will enter a "macro-sensitive" phase, which will respond significantly to economic indicators such as employment data and inflation, until data repeatedly confirms that the economic situation is good. Although there is still pressure in the short term, the current chip structure has partially released selling pressure, and the downward space is expected to be limited.

2. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, and economic recession and concerns about independence have resurfaced

2.1 The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged as expected; factors such as the rebound in inflation, sluggish employment data, and additional comments from dovish members have increased expectations of a rate cut in September; the crisis over the independence of the Fed and US data has resurfaced.

7.30 - The ADP employment report for July in the United States showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, higher than expected.

7.30 - US GDP grew by 3.0% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, higher than expected.

7.31 - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations.

7.31 - Federal Reserve FOMC Statement: Inflation remains slightly elevated, employment is robust, economic growth decelerated in the first half of the year, and uncertainty remains elevated. No intention to signal any imminent interest rate cuts.

7.31 - Powell: 30% or 40% of core inflation comes from tariffs; interest rate costs of the government are not considered in monetary policy formulation.

7.31 - The annualized core PCE price index in the United States recorded 2.8% in June, marking a new high since February, while the market expectation was 2.7%.

7.31 - The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations.

8.1 - In July, the number of non-farm jobs in the United States increased by 73,000, which was lower than market expectations; the unemployment rate recorded was 4.2%, which met expectations and was higher than the previous value.

8.1 - The non-farm payroll data for May and June was significantly revised downwards by 258,000, representing the largest downward revision since the COVID-19 pandemic

8.1 - Trump: The non-farm payroll data is manipulated to embarrass me; I have instructed my team to immediately fire the Secretary of Labor, and Powell should also "retire".

8.1 - Federal Reserve Board Member Kuegler Announces Resignation

2.2 Tariffs were postponed again, with tax rates increased for countries such as India, Brazil, and Canada. The China-US tariff negotiations were extended for 90 days, while the US and South Korea reached a trade agreement.

7.29 - Trump: Global tariffs will range from 15% to 20%.

Weekly Crypto Market Decoded_20250805

This week's data shows that short-term selling pressure and net inflows from ETFs have simultaneously weakened, with listed companies continuing to increase their holdings, forming strong support and prompting 

 to maintain high volatility. Altcoins have generally risen but rely on capital rotation. 

 continues to perform strongly, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate rising to 0.032. Compliant narrative sectors such as DeFi, Staking, and RWA remain popular, and capital is accelerating towards the 

 ecosystem's compliant narrative rotation. Next week will usher in the "Macro Super Week" - multiple factors such as the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan interest rate decisions, technology giants' earnings season, core PCE and non-farm payroll data, as well as pending trade negotiations, will be intensively on the stage. The interaction of these variables will determine the sustainability of the current market uptrend. It is expected that market volatility will significantly increase, and investors need to be wary of potential volatility risks.

2. Key Events: The independence of the Federal Reserve faces a major test

2.1 Trump continues to put pressure on Powell, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is about to face a major test.

7.22 - U.S. Representative Luna sent a letter to the Department of Justice, alleging that Powell had committed perjury twice and proposing criminal charges

7.23 - US Treasury Secretary: There is no indication that Powell should resign now

7.23 - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman: The independence of the Federal Reserve in monetary policy is very important

7.24 - The White House releases Trump's AI action plan

7.24 - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: Trump stated that he would not fire Powell; a new nominee for the Fed Chair may be announced in December or January

7.25 - Trump visits the Federal Reserve and personally requests Powell to cut interest rates

7.25 - Trump: There's no need to remove Powell from office. His term will soon expire, and I believe he will do

Weekly Crypto Market Decoded_20250727

This week, Bitcoin continued to reach new all-time highs. Institutional holdings and the sentiment surrounding the three major crypto bills drove ETH to surge by 26%, with confidence in Altcoins significantly recovering. On-chain data showed a significant increase in market activity, with the movement of 736,000 BTC revealing intense bullish and bearish battles: short-term profit-taking and long-term holders accelerating their distribution, but institutional funds continued to enter the market, with a net inflow of $2.39 billion into ETFs, pushing for new support near 117k. The short-term trend depends on whether the purchasing power of funds can withstand selling pressure. If demand is strong or challenges the resistance level of $130,000, and if 117k is breached, it may drop to the range of 110k-115k. Despite the continued bullish momentum in the market, caution is needed.

2. Key Events: Inflation data is mixed, it will not affect the policy direction of the Federal Reserve

2.1 The inflation data is mixed, which does not affect the policy direction of the Federal Reserve. The crisis of the independence of the Federal Reserve is once again "TACO".

7.16 - The unadjusted CPI annual rate in the United States for June was 2.7%, higher than the previous value and in line with expectations; the unadjusted core CPI annual rate in the United States for June was 2.9%, higher than the previous value and in line with expectations.

7.16 - US Congress members revealed that Fed Chairman Powell is about to be fired, which was confirmed by White House officials. Some informed sources revealed that Trump has drafted a letter to fire Fed Chairman Powell. Trump responded that there are no plans to fire Powell and denied drafting a letter to fire Fed Chairman Powell, unless Powell has committed fraud in the Fed's renovation.

7.17 - US PPI in June increased by 2.3% year-on-year, lower than the previous value and expectations.

7.17 - Federal Reserve Beige Book: The economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic.

7.17 - Fed's Bostic: The full impact of tariffs on inflation may not be fully apparent until 2026.

7.18 - US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding expectations.

7.21 - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July in the United States was 61.8, with an expectation of 61.5.

7.21 - The preliminary estimate of the one-year inflation rate in the United States for July is 4.4%, with an expectation of 5.00%.

2.2 The outlook for tariffs between the US and the EU is bleak

7.15 - Trump stated that if an agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict could not be reached within 50 days, the United States would impose "100% tariffs" on Russia and secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil; Trump believed that an agreement would be reached with Putin.

Weekly Crypto Market Decoded_20250720

The crypto market remains largely indifferent to current trade policy tensions, showing strong independent upward momentum. A rare supply vacuum has re-emerged, reinforcing bullish sentiment. However, with long-term holders starting to sell, the market faces a test of buying strength. Looking ahead, unless tariffs escalate significantly, market catalysts will focus on two fronts: macro-wise, next week’s CPI data will be crucial in shaping the Fed’s policy path and global risk appetite; industry-wise, the upcoming “Crypto Policy Week” — with legislative developments on the CLARITY Act, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and the GENIUS Act — is expected to play a key role in influencing market sentiment.

2. Key Events：The independence of the Federal Reserve faces another challenge, Reciprocal Tariffs 2.0 Upgrade as Scheduled

2.1 The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting cautiously signaled a dovish approach; the independence of the Federal Reserve faced further challenges

7.9 - In June, the New York Fed's one-year inflation expectation in the United States was 3.02%, lower than both the previous value and expectations

7.9 - Trump: Powell should resign immediately if he misleads Congress on the renovation bill; Congress should investigate Powell

7.10 - NVIDIA achieves a market capitalization of over $4 trillion

7.10 - Federal Reserve Minutes: Most Officials Believe Tariffs May Continue to Drive Inflation Higher, While a Few Are Willing to Consider Cutting Interest Rates at the Next Meeting

7.11 - Fed's Daley: Expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, with tariff impact possibly weaker than expected

7.14 - US President Trump: I won't fire Fed Chairman Powell; if Powell steps down, that would be a good thing

7.14 - "Mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve": The independence of the Federal Reserve faces another challenge, and it is expected that interest rates will not be cut this month

7.14 - Fed's Goolsbee warns: Latest tariff threats may delay the process of interest rate cuts

2.2 Reciprocal Tariffs 2.0 Escalates as Expected: Tax Rates Change Little, but Timing Delayed

7.8 - Trump announced that starting from August 1, it will impose a 25% tariff on Japan and South Korea, a 25% tariff on Malaysia and Kazakhstan, a 30% tariff on South Africa, and a 40% tariff on Laos and Myanmar

Intelligence de marché

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