1. Summary
This week, Bitcoin continued to reach new all-time highs. Institutional holdings and the sentiment surrounding the three major crypto bills drove ETH to surge by 26%, with confidence in Altcoins significantly recovering. On-chain data showed a significant increase in market activity, with the movement of 736,000 BTC revealing intense bullish and bearish battles: short-term profit-taking and long-term holders accelerating their distribution, but institutional funds continued to enter the market, with a net inflow of $2.39 billion into ETFs, pushing for new support near 117k. The short-term trend depends on whether the purchasing power of funds can withstand selling pressure. If demand is strong or challenges the resistance level of $130,000, and if 117k is breached, it may drop to the range of 110k-115k. Despite the continued bullish momentum in the market, caution is needed.
2. Key Events: Inflation data is mixed, it will not affect the policy direction of the Federal Reserve
2.1 The inflation data is mixed, which does not affect the policy direction of the Federal Reserve. The crisis of the independence of the Federal Reserve is once again "TACO".
7.16 - The unadjusted CPI annual rate in the United States for June was 2.7%, higher than the previous value and in line with expectations; the unadjusted core CPI annual rate in the United States for June was 2.9%, higher than the previous value and in line with expectations.
7.16 - US Congress members revealed that Fed Chairman Powell is about to be fired, which was confirmed by White House officials. Some informed sources revealed that Trump has drafted a letter to fire Fed Chairman Powell. Trump responded that there are no plans to fire Powell and denied drafting a letter to fire Fed Chairman Powell, unless Powell has committed fraud in the Fed's renovation.
7.17 - US PPI in June increased by 2.3% year-on-year, lower than the previous value and expectations.
7.17 - Federal Reserve Beige Book: The economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic.
7.17 - Fed's Bostic: The full impact of tariffs on inflation may not be fully apparent until 2026.
7.18 - US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding expectations.
7.21 - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July in the United States was 61.8, with an expectation of 61.5.
7.21 - The preliminary estimate of the one-year inflation rate in the United States for July is 4.4%, with an expectation of 5.00%.
CME FedWatch Tool – Fed Meeting Rate Probability Forecast Summary
|
MEETING DATE
|
300-325
|
325-350
|
350-375
|
375-400
|
400-425
|
425-450
|
|
2025/7/30
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
4.1%
|
95.9%
|
|
2025/9/17
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
2.3%
|
56.0%
|
41.7%
|
|
2025/10/29
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
1.2%
|
31.0%
|
48.3%
|
19.4%
|
|
2025/12/10
|
0.0%
|
0.8%
|
21.4%
|
42.7%
|
28.7%
|
6.3%
|
2.2 The outlook for tariffs between the US and the EU is bleak
7.15 - Trump stated that if an agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict could not be reached within 50 days, the United States would impose "100% tariffs" on Russia and secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil; Trump believed that an agreement would be reached with Putin.
7.15 - South Korean Trade Minister: It is possible to reach a principled trade agreement with the United States before the deadline of August 1.
7.15 - US President Trump will announce a "radical" plan to provide weapons assistance to Ukraine.
7.15 - The European Union is preparing to impose counter-tariffs on 72 billion euros worth of American goods.
7.16 - Trump announced that an agreement had been reached with Indonesia, under which the United States would impose a 19% tariff, which is lower than the level threatened last week.
7.16 - Trump: Will soon send tariff letters to small countries, with tax rates possibly slightly higher than 10%.
On July 21st, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the imposition of a 93.5% anti-dumping duty on Chinese anode-grade graphite.
7.21 - US President Trump pushed for the imposition of a minimum tariff of 15%-20% on all EU goods.
7.21 - U.S. Secretary of Commerce: Small countries need to pay a benchmark tariff of 10%.
3. Equity & Crypto Market Performance
3.1 Stock indexes in many countries have set new records,Optimistic sentiment drives global bull market
The global stock market is experiencing a rare synchronized bull run, with major stock indices in numerous countries, including the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan, India, Brazil, and others, nearing historical highs or hitting record highs. This week, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite continued to reach record highs, with the S&P 500 rising 0.59% and the strong performance of technology stocks driving the Nasdaq up 1.25%. The small-cap Russell 2000 index rose 0.23%. The current stock market rally has a broad geographical coverage, reflecting the global market's focus on economic resilience and expectations for future growth.
Figure 1: Nasdaq & S&P 500 & U.S. Treasury Bond Trends
3.2 Bitcoin continues to reach new highs. Independent market trends are prominent
This week, the overall crypto market maintained an optimistic atmosphere, with the Fear & Greed Index consistently in the "greed" range, indicating that investor sentiment remained positive. After hitting a record high on Monday, Bitcoin entered a period of consolidation at elevated levels, with the weekly fluctuation range narrowing to $115.6k-$123.2k. Ultimately, the weekly chart closed slightly lower by 1.52%, ending the previous three consecutive weeks of gains. The weak correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks suggests that crypto assets are moving independently during their record-breaking ascent, reflecting that they are currently in a phase of intense trading turnover.
Figure 2: BTC Price Trends
3.3 Both market volume and prices have risen. Confidence in Altcoins has significantly increased
As of July 20th, the total market capitalization reached $3.9305 trillion, marking a weekly increase of 5.71%. In terms of market trading, the weekly trading volume across the entire market amounted to $1.43941 trillion, representing a 48.23% increase from the previous week, with a significant increase in trading activity. Structurally, Bitcoin's trading volume reached $596.62 billion, marking a 42.26% increase from the previous week and the second-highest weekly trading volume since the election. Bitcoin's dominance decreased by 3.75%, with its trading volume share dropping to 40.26%. In contrast, Altcoin trading volume increased by 52.63% from the previous week, reaching a new high in nearly six months. This significant recovery in confidence in Altcoins indicates a notable increase in market risk appetite, with funds shifting from Bitcoin to Altcoins.
Figure 3：Trading Volume of BTC and Altcoins
4. BTC Trend Analysis
4.1 Long-term holders are accelerating their distribution, testing the momentum of buying orders
As an important "wind vane" in the market, long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin have significantly accelerated their chip distribution this week, releasing approximately 150,000 BTC of selling pressure into the market. This trend indicates that the current price range is considered by long-term investors as an ideal area for profit realization.
Historically, the periodic bottoms for long-term holders often correspond to the tops of the market. Although the early reduction in holdings by long-term holders often does not precisely correspond to the absolute top of the market, as their continued selling overlaps with the diminishing momentum of market buying, the market usually enters a process of periodic peaking.
Figure 4: BTC Unspent Realized Price Distribution
4.2 Reconstruction of Bitcoin support structure. The new support level is significant
After a week of high-level volatility, Bitcoin chips have significantly accumulated in the $117,000-$118,000 range, demonstrating strong purchasing power. In just one week, the second largest chip range has been gathered, forming a strong short-term support band. The $110k-$115k range is a vacuum area for chips, and a break below the previous support level may trigger an accelerated decline in the market. $104k is the second largest short-term support level, with approximately 489,000 BTC; $97k is the third support level. This price range has experienced two rounds of new highs and is a relatively stable holding of chips. If there is an abnormal reduction in this price range, it may indicate a shift in market sentiment and become an important signal for market turning points.
Figure 5: BTC Chip Structure
4.3 Market Summary and Outlook: The fierce bull-bear market tests the sustainability of purchasing power
Overall, on-chain data indicates a significant increase in market activity, with the movement of 736,000 BTC revealing intense bullish and bearish trading. On the one hand, profit-taking is concentrated in the 103k-110k range, with long-term holders accelerating the reduction of 150,000 BTC, and the Bhutanese government also joining the sell-off. On the other hand, institutional funds continue to enter the market, with a net inflow of $2.39 billion into ETFs, and listed and private companies steadily increasing their holdings, pushing the 117k-119k range to form a new strong support band.
Short-term outlook: Whether the sustainability of capital purchasing power can withstand profit-taking and government selling pressure will be a decisive factor in market trends. If demand for Bitcoin remains strong, $130,000 will be the next major statistical and psychologically significant resistance level; if it falls below 117k, it may quickly test the 110k-115k chip vacuum area. Although bullish momentum continues, signs of pressure on the demand side suggest caution should be maintained in the short term.
Figure 6: BTC Chip Supply Situation
4.4 Institutional funds continue to enter the market, supporting Bitcoin's high volatility
This week, institutional funds have shown a steady inflow into the Bitcoin market:
-
ETF continues to accumulate shares: with a weekly net inflow of $2.39 billion, achieving six consecutive weeks of net inflows, it has become the strongest buying support in the current market;
-
Listed companies are actively allocating: this week, they increased their holdings by 6,697 BTC, and since April, their cumulative increase has reached 147,000 BTC, with demand for allocation continuing to be unleashed;
-
Private enterprises follow suit: following the allocation strategy of listed companies, corporate holdings of 1,480 BTC were added this week.
Risk signals worthy of attention:
Government reduction: The government of Bhutan, the fifth largest holder of Bitcoin, reduced its holdings by 419 BTC this week, accumulating a total reduction of 749.3 BTC over the past two weeks (still holding 13,029 BTC). If the Bhutanese government accelerates the disposal of its Bitcoin holdings, it may have a negative impact on market sentiment.
Figure 7: BTC Buyer Analysis
5. Regulatory Trends
America
-
The U.S. House of Representatives has passed multiple pieces of cryptocurrency-related legislation (such as the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Act), explicitly opposing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), while supporting the inclusion of cryptocurrencies in retirement plans.
-
The Trump administration signed the GENIUS Act, promising to promote the development of stablecoins while banning central bank digital currencies (CBDC), further strengthening differentiated regulation of cryptocurrencies.
-
The SEC's delay in approving certain Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs demonstrates the regulator's cautious balance between innovation and risk control.
-
The US Department of Justice has concluded its investigation into the prediction platform PolyMarket, signaling a relatively lenient approach towards certain crypto derivatives businesses.
Asia
-
Hong Kong continues to improve its regulatory framework for digital assets. Several financial institutions, such as Futu, CMB International, and Standard Chartered Bank, have successively obtained virtual asset trading licenses or business upgrade permits, indicating that Hong Kong is actively promoting the process of compliance.
-
South Korea and the United States have commenced negotiations on a trade agreement, which may include provisions related to digital assets, but the specific regulatory trends remain unclear.
Europe
-
The European Union has taken a proactive stance in regulating cryptocurrencies, while the UK Treasury has announced its intention to promote the development of distributed ledger technology (DLT) and asset tokenization in order to foster financial innovation.
-
Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, plans to offer custody services for cryptocurrency assets, indicating Russia's exploration of compliant cryptocurrency solutions amidst sanctions.
-
Ghana is finalizing its regulatory framework for cryptocurrency trading, indicating that African countries are also gradually improving their regulation of digital assets.
6. The implementation of stablecoin regulation, the competition for Solana ETF, and the wave of ETH institutionalization
The stablecoin ecosystem is expanding rapidly
-
Paypal plans to extend its PYUSD stablecoin to the Arbitrum chain
-
Bank of America plans to launch a stablecoin and is awaiting legal clarity
-
Citigroup is exploring the issuance of a stablecoin for cross-border payments
-
Circle applies to establish the first digital currency bank in the United States, focusing on USDC trust and institutional services
The ETF market continues to develop
-
Grayscale has confidentially submitted its draft IPO registration statement to the SEC
-
SEC Postpones Decision on Physical Redemption of Bitwise Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs
-
BlackRock iShares Ethereum ETF Submits Pledge Application
-
Bloomberg analyst: BlackRock's Ethereum ETF could be approved as early as Q4 2025
Institutional holding strategies have significantly diverged, with more institutions shifting their strategic allocation towards Ethereum
-
Metaplanet has once again increased its holdings by 797 BTC, bringing its total BTC holdings to 16,352
-
SharpLink Gaming has once again increased its holdings by 6,377 ETH, with $257 million still available for further acquisitions
-
Bit Digital (a company listed on NASDAQ) has completed a $67.3 million financing to continue purchasing ETH
-
Matador plans to raise 900 million Canadian dollars to accumulate BTC within 25 months
-
OFA Group has secured $100 million in equity financing, intending to establish a cryptocurrency treasury
-
MEI Pharm (a publicly listed company on the US stock market) plans to invest over $100 million to establish a LTC treasury
-
BTCT announces strategic shift to Ethereum, converting all BTC reserves into ETH
Other
-
The proposal for the tradable "WLFI Token" of the Trump Family's crypto project has been approved, and it is expected to launch within 6-8 weeks
-
The Ethereum Foundation has announced a global community event to be held on July 30th, celebrating the tenth anniversary of Ethereum
-
CME is considering implementing round-the-clock cryptocurrency trading, explicitly excluding Meme coin products
-
Vitalik: The best way to build L2 is to draw more inspiration from the functions of L1
-
The probability of Trump firing Powell by the end of August has risen to 21% on Polymarket
7. Next week's outlook
JUL 2025 Crypto Calendar
July 21st: Berachain initiated a proposal to "propose to redistribute 33% of the PoL rewards originally allocated to BGT to the BERA revenue module", and a community vote will be held on July 21st; electric vehicle company Volcon is expected to raise over $500 million around July 21st to launch its Bitcoin financial strategy
July 22: The White House Digital Asset Market Working Group is expected to release its first crypto policy report on July 22; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers a welcome speech at a regulatory meeting
July 23rd: Trump plans to issue an executive order to promote the development of artificial intelligence and is considering designating July 23rd as "Artificial Intelligence Action Day"; AVAIL has unlocked 38.23% of its circulation, worth approximately $18.9 million; SOON has unlocked 22.41% of its circulation, worth approximately $6.1 million
July 24th: Financial reports of Google and Tesla
July 25th: The unlocked circulation ratio of ALT is 6.39%, with a value of approximately $8.9 million
8. Reference
-
defillama.com
-
coinmarketcap.com
-
tradingview.com
-
cryptoslam.io
-
token.unlocks.app/
-
dune.com
-
itez.com/events
-
cryptorank.io/
