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Dernières informations et tendances du marché crypto | KuCoin Research

Alors que le Bitcoin continue de gagner en acceptation générale et que son adoption croît, la mise en place d'une Réserve Stratégique de Bitcoin (RSB) pourrait redéfinir la manière dont les pays gèrent leurs actifs financiers. Dans ce rapport, nous expliquerons ce qu'est une Réserve Stratégique de Bitcoin, pourquoi elle est envisagée et son impact potentiel sur l'économie mondiale et les devises de réserve.

Qu'est-ce qu'une réserve stratégique de Bitcoin et quelle est sa probabilité ?

Market Insights

Bitcoin a atteint un record historique de 90 000 $, poussé par des politiques pro-crypto, des conditions économiques favorables et une demande institutionnelle croissante. Les analystes projettent que Bitcoin pourrait atteindre 100 000 $ d'ici la fin de l'année, avec le potentiel d'atteindre 1 million $ d'ici 2025 en raison de l'adoption accrue et du soutien réglementaire sous la nouvelle administration américaine.

Prévision du prix du Bitcoin 2024-25 : Plan B prévoit un BTC à 1 million de dollars d'ici 2025

Chez KuCoin, nous nous engageons à favoriser une compréhension plus profonde de la communauté crypto mondiale. Cet engagement est au cœur de notre série de rapports "Into the Cryptoverse", qui cherche à explorer les marchés crypto dynamiques à travers le monde. Dans notre 19ème édition, nous mettons en lumière l'Inde, un pays qui adopte rapidement la technologie et l'innovation crypto.

Dans le Cryptoverse : Explorer l’adoption croissante des cryptomonnaies en Inde, les préférences d’investissement et les tendances d’innovation en 2023

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Chasing crypto market trends and analyzing event impacts

This week, Bitcoin ended its three-week downward trend, rising 2.67%, and formed new support at the 108k–112k range. However, short-term panic selling pressure still dominates the market, with 113k and 117k constituting key resistance levels. On-chain data shows a decrease in token turnover activity, with market sentiment tending towards caution; institutional holdings show signs of recovery, but ETF inflows remain weak, not yet sufficient to support a new round of uptrend. If the price falls below 108k, it will exacerbate panic and accelerate the downtrend, while breaking through 117k is a necessary condition for strengthening bullish logic. ETH continues to weaken, with significant outflow pressure from ETFs, but reserve company buying still partially supports demand. Overall, the crypto market remains in a short-term consolidation phase, and confidence recovery depends on improvements in macroeconomic data and a rebound in capital inflows.

The non-farm employment data is weak. Reinforcing expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September

Several economic indicators in the United States have continued to be weak, with the job market and manufacturing sector performing below expectations, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

The market has shifted from a debate over "whether to cut interest rates" to "how many times interest rates will be cut within the year", which has simultaneously triggered concerns about economic recession.

9.2 - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: Fed Governor Nominee Brainard Likely to Take Office Before September Fed Meeting

9.2 - In August, the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in the United States was 53, lower than both the previous value and expectations; the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August in the United States was 48.7, also lower than expectations

9.3 -- U.S. JOLTs positions in July were 1.781 million, lower than the previous value and expectations

9.4 - Federal Reserve Beige Book: Most Districts Report Stagnant Economy

9.4 - In August, the ADP employment report in the United States showed a figure of 54,000, compared to the expected 65,000

9.5 - After seasonal adjustment, the non-farm payroll in the United States increased by 22,000 in August, which was lower than the market expectation of 75,000

9.5 - The unemployment rate in the United States recorded 4.3% in August, in line with market expectations, marking a new high since October 2021

9.5 - Fed's megaphone: Non-farm payroll report almost confirms a rate cut in September, but the debate over subsequent rate cuts is more complicated

9.5 - The pool of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair has narrowed down to three, with Trump reiterating his support for Hassett for the position

CME FedWatch Tool – Fed Meeting Rate Probability Forecast Summary

The sluggish employment data has reinforced expectations of interest rate cuts, 

Cautious sentiment emerges amidst the volatility of US stocks

The weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data reinforced market bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driving the yields of 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds down by 3.1% and 3.6% respectively, which in turn boosted the performance of US stocks. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose by 0.33% and 1.14% respectively, while the small-cap Russell 2000 rose by 1.04%, continuing to outperform the broader market. Meanwhile, the VIX index fluctuated narrowly around 15, reflecting investors' continued caution. It is worth noting that US stocks opened higher but closed lower after the non-farm payroll report, indicating that while the weak employment data supported the expectation of a rate cut, it also exacerbated recession concerns. Whether subsequent economic data can validate the precautionary rate cut in September will be key to influencing market sentiment.

Figure 1: Nasdaq & S&P 500 & U.S. Treasury Bond Trends

Weekly Crypto Market Decoded_20250909

Although the cryptocurrency market experienced a correction this week, the overall risk remains controllable. On-chain data indicates that 108k–109k is a crucial support level, and a drop below 107.4k could trigger further panic. Bitcoin's market capitalization dominance remains around 58%, showing that funds still have confidence in the core asset. In contrast, ETH has performed relatively resiliently during the correction, with continuous capital inflows, reinforcing its status as an altcoin bellwether. The overall market capitalization of altcoins has remained stable amidst Bitcoin's correction, and market sentiment is significantly better than in similar situations before. Market trading volume has remained high without significant amplification, indicating that selling pressure has not caused systemic panic. Overall, the capital structure is stable, mainstream assets have strong absorptive capacity, fear of selling pressure is prominent, and the probability of market volatility is relatively high. If the overall market stabilizes, market sentiment is expected to rebound, and altcoins may experience a corrective rally.

2. The core PCE meets expectations,"Maintain the path of interest rate cuts in September"

The core PCE met expectations, solidifying the path of interest rate cuts in September; 

Trump's dismissal of a Federal Reserve governor raises concerns about the independence of the Fed; 

NVIDIA's financial report cooled down the market;

8.26 - US President Trump: Dismiss Fed Governor Cook

8.26 - US President Trump threatens to impose tariffs on countries imposing digital taxes

8.27 - NVIDIA's performance exceeded expectations, but revenue outlook was slightly flat

8.28 - The revised annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP in the United States for the second quarter was 3.3%, higher than expected

8.28 - The revised annualized quarterly rate of the US core PCE price index for the second quarter was 2.5%, lower than expected

8.29 - The core PCE annual rate in the United States recorded 2.9%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value

8.29 - US judge did not make a ruling on the case of Trump's dismissal of Cook in court, and Cook will temporarily remain in his position

8.29 - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August in the United States was 58.2, lower than expected

8.29 - The final value of the one-year inflation rate expectation in the United States for August was 4.8%, lower than expected

9.1 - The US M2 money supply has reached a record high of $22.12 trillion

3.1 The US stock market has been experiencing low volatility, Investors are cautious

The positive effect of the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut quickly subsided this week, coupled with Nvidia's earnings guidance failing to effectively reinforce the narrative of AI, leading to a continued sell-off in technology stocks. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell slightly by 0.10% and 0.19% respectively, while the small-cap index, the Russell 2000, rose 0.19%, continuing to outperform the broader market, reflecting the shift of funds from technology stocks to higher-risk assets amid the backdrop of impending interest rate cuts and AI valuation issues. Meanwhile, the VIX index remained low near 15, with cautious market sentiment.

Weekly Crypto Market Decoded_20250902

This week, the trend of Bitcoin was highly correlated with that of the US stock market. After repeatedly testing the support level of $112,000 at the beginning of the week, it was stimulated by Powell's dovish remarks and rose to $117,000 in the short term. However, it fell back to around $113,000 due to pressure over the weekend, with increasing divergence between bulls and bears. On-chain data showed that short-term unwind positions and long-term profit-taking positions formed the main selling pressure. Institutional holdings increased slowly, and Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced continuous net outflows, indicating weak core buying. ETH hit a four-year high driven by optimistic expectations for monetary policy and corporate reserves. Institutional allocation was solid, but corporate reserves could not fully reverse the overall market trend in the long term due to their low-frequency and large-scale characteristics. Since July, the increase in the market capitalization share of Altcoins has mainly been concentrated in ETH itself, with limited capital diffusion. The overall market capitalization of the crypto market has slightly declined, and trading activity still exists, but it lacks sustained incremental capital support, resulting in significant differentiation in market risk appetite.

2. Powell's speech was a disappointment,Expectations for interest rate cuts surged in September

2.1 The credit rating of the United States remains stable, inflation expectations are moderate, and expectations for interest rate cuts in September have surged. It is expected that interest rates will be cut twice within the year

8.19 - Fed's mouthpiece: Overall PCE inflation rate expected to be moderate in July, with year-on-year growth remaining at 2.6%

8.20 - Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Most members believe that inflation risks outweigh employment risks, and the overall US economy remains resilient

8.20 - Trump criticizes Powell again, urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates

8.20 - Standard & Poor's confirmed the US sovereign rating of "AA+/A-1+", with a stable outlook

8.21 - Fitch confirms the US rating as "AA+", with a stable outlook

8.21 - Fed's mouthpiece: A few officials hinted that they may join the rate-cutting camp in September

8.22 - Fed's Collins: If the outlook for the labor market worsens, it may be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short term

8.22 - Powell delivers a speech at Jackson Hole

2.2 Powell's policy tone: neutral with a dovish tilt;The risk of employment outweighs the risk of inflation

Macroeconomics and Policy Stance: Coexistence of Stagnation and Inflation Risks, Requiring Adjustment of Monetary Stance Based on Changes in Risk Balance

Labor market: The peculiar equilibrium state resulting from a significant slowdown in both labor supply and demand. This indicates that the downside risks to employment are escalating, and the unemployment rate could surge rapidly.

Inflationary situation: The inflationary effect of tariffs is unlikely to be lasting, nor will it lead to an upward shift in inflation expectations.

Monetary policy stance: The baseline outlook and evolving balance of risks may necessitate adjustments to the monetary stance.

Second: The monetary policy framework returns to normalization: a 2% inflation target + a broad maximum employment goal

Inflation Target: Return to a 2% inflation target regime, removing the average phrasing

Employment Objective: Return to a more flexible and broader "maximum employment" objective. Considering the lagging nature of monetary policy, in order to prevent inflation, the Federal Reserve should tighten monetary policy before the labor market enters a tight situation.

Weekly Crypto Market Decoded_20250826

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Qu'est-ce qu'une réserve stratégique de Bitcoin et quelle est sa probabilité ?

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Weekly Crypto Market Decoded_20250909

Weekly Crypto Market Decoded_20250902

Weekly Crypto Market Decoded_20250826

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