1. Summary
This week's data shows that short-term selling pressure and net inflows from ETFs have simultaneously weakened, with listed companies continuing to increase their holdings, forming strong support and prompting BTC to maintain high volatility. Altcoins have generally risen but rely on capital rotation. ETH continues to perform strongly, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate rising to 0.032. Compliant narrative sectors such as DeFi, Staking, and RWA remain popular, and capital is accelerating towards the Ethereum ecosystem's compliant narrative rotation. Next week will usher in the "Macro Super Week" - multiple factors such as the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan interest rate decisions, technology giants' earnings season, core PCE and non-farm payroll data, as well as pending trade negotiations, will be intensively on the stage. The interaction of these variables will determine the sustainability of the current market uptrend. It is expected that market volatility will significantly increase, and investors need to be wary of potential volatility risks.
2. Key Events: The independence of the Federal Reserve faces a major test, Trade is progressing smoothly
2.1 Trump continues to put pressure on Powell, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is about to face a major test.
7.22 - U.S. Representative Luna sent a letter to the Department of Justice, alleging that Powell had committed perjury twice and proposing criminal charges
7.23 - US Treasury Secretary: There is no indication that Powell should resign now
7.23 - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman: The independence of the Federal Reserve in monetary policy is very important
7.24 - The White House releases Trump's AI action plan
7.24 - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: Trump stated that he would not fire Powell; a new nominee for the Fed Chair may be announced in December or January
7.25 - Trump visits the Federal Reserve and personally requests Powell to cut interest rates
7.25 - Trump: There's no need to remove Powell from office. His term will soon expire, and I believe he will do
CME FedWatch Tool – Fed Meeting Rate Probability Forecast Summary
|
MEETING DATE
|
300-325
|
325-350
|
350-375
|
375-400
|
400-425
|
425-450
|
|
2025/7/30
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
3.1%
|
96.9%
|
|
2025/9/17
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
1.9%
|
59.8%
|
38.3%
|
|
2025/10/29
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.9%
|
29.1%
|
49.7%
|
20.3%
|
|
2025/12/10
|
0.0%
|
0.6%
|
19.2%
|
42.5%
|
30.6%
|
7.1%
|
2.2 The United States has reached trade agreements with the European Union, Japan, and the Philippines, and trade progress is smooth.
7.22 - White House: The tariff deadline of August 1st is actually just a starting date
7.23 - The Philippines and the United States reached a trade agreement, with the Philippines agreeing to pay a 19% tariff
7.24 - Trump: Simple tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% will be imposed on most countries
7.24 - Trump: If we can persuade major countries to open their markets to the United States, we will always be willing to abandon the tariff clause
7.28 - US Secretary of Commerce: The deadline for tariff increase on August 1 will not be extended
7.28 - The United States and the European Union reached a tariff agreement with a 15% tax rate
3. Equity & Crypto Market Performance
3.1 The impressive financial reports of technology stocks coupled with favorable trade conditions, US stocks continue to hit new highs
This week, technology stocks' financial reports generally exceeded expectations, coupled with optimistic expectations for trade agreements, leading to a broad-based strengthening of US stocks. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq continued to hit record highs, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rising 1.46% and 1.02% respectively. The small-cap Russell 2000 index rose 0.94%. The market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming FOMC meeting, and US Treasury yields to remain stable. In addition, the Volatility Index (VIX) fell to a five-month low, reflecting stable investor sentiment.
Figure 1: Nasdaq & S&P 500 & U.S. Treasury Bond Trends
3.2 Bitcoin continues to consolidate. Market confidence is stable
This week, the overall crypto market maintained an optimistic atmosphere, with the Fear & Greed Index consistently in the "greed" range, indicating that investor sentiment remained positive. Bitcoin maintained high volatility this week, with the weekly fluctuation range narrowing to $114.7k-$120.2k. Over the weekend, it recovered from previous losses, ultimately closing up 1.83% on the weekly chart. Overall, although Bitcoin lacked breakthrough upward momentum this week, it demonstrated a solid support range under macroeconomic favorable conditions, maintaining stable market confidence.
Figure 2: BTC Price Trends
3.3 The trading activity remains high. Capital flows to altcoins
As of July 27th, the total market capitalization reached $3.9186 trillion, marking a week-on-week decrease of 0.3%. In terms of market trading, the total trading volume for the week was $1.32253 trillion, a decrease of 8.12% from the previous week, while trading activity remained sustained. Structurally, Bitcoin trading volume amounted to $488.08 billion, a decrease of 18.19% from the previous week; Bitcoin's dominance increased by 0.18%, ending a four-week downward trend, with Bitcoin's trading volume share dropping to 37.1%. In contrast, Altcoin trading volume decreased by 0.99% from the previous week, maintaining the heat of the Altcoin market, indicating a significant increase in market risk appetite and a shift of funds from Bitcoin to Altcoins.
Figure 3：Trading Volume of BTC and Altcoins
4. Crypto Trend Analysis
4.1 The turnover activity has seen a sharp decline, High-level capital supports market volatility
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin addresses have moved a total of 367,000 BTC this week, a decrease of 50.1% compared to last week, and the turnover activity has dropped significantly compared to last week. From the perspective of chip distribution, short-term profit-taking activities have significantly decreased, and long-term chips have been steadily reduced:
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The short-term profit-taking zone of $103,000-$110,000 remains the main area for reduction, with about 150,000 tokens being taken profit and a 50% decrease compared to last week;
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The reduction of mid-price chips (75k-100k) is about 51,000 pieces, a decrease of 75% compared to last week.
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The low-price chip structure (less than 75k) has seen a total of 88,000 chips reduced in each stage, an increase of 4,000 chips compared to the previous period, while long-term chips are still being distributed steadily;
Meanwhile, the number of coins in the $117k-118k range increased by 245,000, representing the recent increase in holdings by Strategy. The number of chips in the $114k-117k range soared, filling the gap left by the previous rise. This indicates that funds entering the market at high prices are swift and fierce, supporting the volatile market.
Figure 4: BTC Unspent Realized Price Distribution
4.2 Institutional investors have established a solid position, and the market structure remains healthy
After a week of high-level volatility, the position holdings in the range of $116,900-$118,200 (116935-118166) have reached a high of 616,668 BTC, far exceeding other price levels. This indicates that it has been the main force for institutional position building in the near future and has become an important support. The 110k-115k range is a chip vacuum area, but the chip volume in the 114k-115k range has soared, and there has been a noticeable chip replenishment, effectively filling the liquidity gap formed by the previous rise. The market has not experienced structural damage or panic selling. 104k is the second largest short-term support level, with about 450,000 BTC, suitable for medium-term defensive position building; 97k is the third support level, where the market has undergone sufficient turnover, providing solid backup support for the market.
Figure 5: BTC Chip Structure
This week, listed companies in the Bitcoin market have dominated the market trend:
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Listed companies accelerate their allocation: this week, 60,107 BTC were added, accounting for 93% of the weekly increase. Listed companies are firmly implementing their reserve strategy;
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ETF momentum weakens: The weekly net inflow is $72 million. Although it has achieved seven consecutive weeks of net inflow, the net inflow has significantly decreased, and there has been a three-day consecutive net outflow;
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Private enterprises' minor follow-up: This week, there are 62 new BTC holdings from enterprises;
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The elimination of the risk signal related to government reduction: The government of Bhutan, the fifth largest holder of Bitcoin, stopped reducing its BTC holdings this week.
Figure 6: BTC Buyer Analysis
4.4 ETH has seen a strong recovery,$4,000 becomes a key resistance
ETH/BTC has rebounded from the bottom of 0.017 to the level of 0.032 in the past three months, indicating a strong recovery of ETH. The cost basis distribution of Ethereum shows that most investors' costs are concentrated between $2,400 and $2,800. The amount of coins held at $3,000 to $3,800 is relatively small, which means that less buying funds have driven ETH to rise to $3,800, with less selling pressure in the market during this period.
Investors who previously bought ETH in the range of $2,400 to $2,800 are now gradually distributing their holdings, with the $3,000 and $3,800 areas becoming the points where most investors choose to take profits. As ETH approaches its historical highs (the March 2024 and December 2024 highs of $4,000, and the all-time high of $4,868), ETH selling pressure will significantly increase. If it breaks through the resistance level of the previous high of $4,000, $4,500 will be a key upward observation point for ETH's market trend.
Figure 7: ETH Chip Supply Situation
4.5 Altcoins have seen a general increase, and the market is showing a trend of capital rotation
Recently, Bitcoin has been caught in a consolidation trend, while the altcoin market has performed impressively. Over the past month, the price increase of most altcoins has significantly outperformed that of Bitcoin, and their price movements have shown a notable weakening in correlation with Bitcoin. This phenomenon closely aligns with the typical fund rotation characteristics of the cryptocurrency market.
From the perspective of sector performance, all altcoin sectors have shown a highly synchronized upward trend, reflecting the comprehensive influx of market capital into altcoins. However, this widespread uptrend has a low correlation with the fundamentals of specific projects, and is more attributed to the increase in market risk appetite and the effect of capital rotation. This market structure indicates that current altcoin investors are more inclined to pursue short-term profit opportunities, and when Bitcoin experiences a correction, altcoins may also accelerate their correction.
Figure 8: BTC Price & Crypto Sector Correlation
4.6 ETH ecosystem compliance narrative becomes a safe haven for funds
Although most altcoins outperformed Bitcoin in the past month, risk appetite has noticeably contracted after Bitcoin began to show a trend of correction this week. Only DeFi, ETH, Staking, and Tokenized Asset (RWA) have continued to perform strongly, outperforming BTC.
From the perspective of fundamental narrative and token performance correlation, these sectors have a strong correlation with ETH:
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Fundamental narrative: The leading applications of DeFi, Staking, and RWA market capitalization are all on Ethereum, and these three narratives align with the long-term narrative following the passage of the Stablecoin Act and Charity Act;
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Token price correlation: The correlation coefficients between ETH and DeFi, Staking, and RWA are 77, 100, and 98, respectively, while the performance of Ethereum's strongly correlated Layer 2 tokens is close to 64.
It indicates that the market is not blindly speculating on the ETH ecosystem, but rather focuses on the narrative of compliance.
Figure 9: Crypto Sector Performance & Correlation
5. Regulatory Trends
America
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The US Congress has released a draft discussion on the structure of the cryptocurrency market
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The White House will allow 401(k) pension funds to invest in cryptocurrencies
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The report of the Trump administration's digital asset working group is about to be released
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SEC approves conversion of crypto index fund but suspends review
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Fidelity Amends Spot Bitcoin ETF Application to Support Physical Redemption
Asia
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Thailand plans to relax the testing requirements for cryptocurrency investors
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The applicant for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong has finalized multiple custodian banks
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The International Monetary Fund recognizes El Salvador's Bitcoin Reserve Fund as eligible under the program
Europe
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A unified framework for the crypto-asset market is being formulated
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Consider implementing stricter capital requirements for the encryption business
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Regulators focus on stablecoin and DeFi compliance issues
Other
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The International Monetary Fund recognizes El Salvador's Bitcoin Reserve Fund as eligible under the program
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Brazilian legislators will debate a proposal on cryptocurrency taxation
6. Industry Trends - Major Industry Events
Regulation of stablecoins and acceleration of market layout
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Several institutions have actively applied for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong, with custodian partner banks including Zhong'an Bank, Deutsche Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, etc. HSBC has also launched virtual asset services.
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Tether has announced its entry into the US market, with a focus on expanding its institutional client base.
Progress and policy adjustments of crypto ETFs
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The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the conversion of the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund into an ETF, covering assets such as BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL. However, the review has been suspended pending the establishment of a unified framework for the listing standards of crypto ETFs.
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Fidelity submitted documents to amend its spot Bitcoin ETF to allow for physical redemption and creation.
Listed companies and institutions continue to increase their holdings of cryptocurrency assets
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Crypto company BitGo files for IPO in the US.
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Trump Media Technology Group announced that its total purchase of Bitcoin reserves has reached $2 billion.
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US-listed BTCS announced an increase in its holdings of 22,935 ETH and raised an additional $10 million to continue increasing its holdings.
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SOL Treasury Company Upexi purchased 100,000 Sol tokens for $17.7 million, bringing its total holdings to 1.82 million tokens.
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Mining company MARA will issue $850 million in convertible notes to purchase Bitcoin.
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Canadian listed company Matador secured $100 million in financing for the construction of its Bitcoin reserves.
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Goldman Sachs and Bank of New York Mellon will launch a tokenized money market fund.
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Nasdaq-listed Bit Digital intends to increase its authorized share capital to 1 billion ordinary shares in order to raise funds for further increasing its ETH holdings.
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Strategy has increased the financing scale from 500 million US dollars to 2 billion US dollars for purchasing Bitcoin.
Other
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Enhanced regulatory clarity: The US SEC confirms that ETH is not a security, and the framework for stablecoin licensing in Hong Kong is gradually becoming clearer.
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Active capital operation: Dynamix, a company with a blank check, plans to merge and establish an entity with ETH holdings exceeding $1.5 billion. The financing scale of Strategy has been increased to $2.5 billion for Bitcoin investment.
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Technological and market innovation: OpenAI is about to launch GPT-5
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NFTs will be issued for the Ethereum 10th anniversary event, and 401(k) pension plans are approved to invest in cryptocurrencies.
7. Next week's outlook
JUL 2025 Crypto Calendar
July 28: China and the United States held economic and trade talks in Sweden from July 27 to July 30; JUP unlocked a circulation ratio of 1.78%, worth approximately $31.7 million; the stablecoin Layer2 network Plasma concluded its public sale
July 29: China and the United States held economic and trade talks in Sweden from July 27 to July 30; Sui Ecology's parallel multi-party computing network Ika will be launched on the main network
July 30: US July ADP data; Federal Reserve announces interest rate decision, with Powell holding a press conference; US releases second-quarter GDP series data; the first White House crypto policy report will be publicly released on July 30; Ethereum will celebrate its tenth anniversary of the launch of the genesis block on July 30; KMNO unlocks 9.53% of its circulation, worth approximately $13.8 million; China and the United States hold economic and trade talks in Sweden from July 27 to July 30
July 31st: US June Core PCE Data; Bank of Japan Interest Rate; Strategy plans to announce its second quarter financial report on July 31st; OP's unlocked circulation accounts for 1.79%, worth approximately $22.8 million; Microsoft and Meta financial reports
August 1st: US July non-farm payroll data; Trump had previously extended the "reciprocal tariff" moratorium to August 1st and claimed that there would be no further extension; Hong Kong will implement the "Stablecoin Regulation" on August 1st, promoting to the public that any unlicensed stablecoin will be illegal; SUI's unlocked circulation accounts for 1.27%, worth approximately $188 million; GPS's unlocked circulation accounts for 20.42%, worth approximately $11.6 million
8. Reference
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defillama.com
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coinmarketcap.com
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tradingview.com
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cryptoslam.io
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token.unlocks.app/
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dune.com
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itez.com/events
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cryptorank.io/
