Cuộc đàm phán Mỹ-Iran thất bại, các sự kiện địa chính trị và Fed cần theo dõi trong tuần tới

The Huoxing Finance report states that on April 12, after a brief ceasefire and de-escalation, the Middle East situation took a sharp downturn over the weekend. The 21-hour U.S.-Iran negotiations ended in failure without an agreement—Iran rejected the U.S. proposal’s clause requiring “no nuclear weapons development,” and U.S. Vice President Vance declared the talks concluded, though with ambiguous wording. The two-week pause on attacks previously announced by Trump is now nearing its end, with its future uncertain. Meanwhile, the U.S. destroyer claimed to have completed the first post-conflict transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iranian officials immediately denied; the information war between both sides continues. Next week, geopolitics will again dominate market sentiment, and every piece of news regarding the Hormuz situation could serve as a trigger for asset prices. Beyond geopolitics, the key focus of next week’s macroeconomic calendar centers on two themes: First, a series of speeches by Federal Reserve officials combined with the release of the Beige Book will provide policy signals to the market; second, the U.S. March PPI data released on Tuesday will be a critical indicator of how much energy price shocks have been transmitted to production costs. Meanwhile, major banks including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup will officially kick off the Q1 earnings season. Specific event times are as follows: Tuesday, 20:30: U.S. March PPI annual and monthly rates; Wednesday, 00:15: 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a Semafor World Economic Forum panel; Wednesday, 00:45: Fed Governor Barr delivers opening remarks at a workforce forum; Wednesday, 01:00: Philadelphia Fed President Harker, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and Governor Barr participate in a fireside chat; Thursday, 01:40: Fed Governor Bowman delivers a speech; Thursday, 02:00: Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions; Thursday, 20:30: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 and the April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index; Thursday, 20:35: Permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; Thursday, TBA: ECB releases minutes from its March 19 monetary policy meeting; G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting held. Regarding the U.S. March PPI data to be released on Tuesday, this will be the first key report quantifying how energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict are permeating upstream production costs. Commerzbank economists have explicitly warned that the pass-through effect of energy prices onto non-energy goods “could change soon.” If PPI exceeds expectations, it will further narrow the Fed’s window for rate cuts—currently, the market has nearly ruled out any rate cuts this year. Next week marks the official start of the Q1 2026 earnings season for U.S. equities, with major banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase leading off with their results, followed by tech giants such as TSMC, ASML, and Netflix gradually releasing their data. This earnings season is viewed as a critical barometer for corporate profit resilience, the sustainability of AI demand, and the broader macroeconomic impact. (Jin10)