Serenity: Tác động của AI tương đương với Cách mạng Công nghiệp, chi tiêu vốn vẫn chưa cho thấy điểm chuyển biến rõ ràng

The Huoxing Finance report states that on June 16, Serenity posted that they genuinely believe AI is the most disruptive technology in human history. Its impact may be comparable to the Agricultural Revolution or the Industrial Revolution. Companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI are driving a race toward “superintelligence,” whose long-term economic effects may be difficult to quantify, including medical breakthroughs (e.g., cancer treatment), accelerated scientific research (e.g., quantum computing), and overall productivity gains. At the same time, AI could also lead to structural labor displacement, significantly boosting corporate profit margins over the medium to long term and reshaping the trajectory of macroeconomic growth. From a macroeconomic and industrial structure perspective, the U.S. government also has strategic incentives to continuously promote AI infrastructure development, particularly in military capabilities, cybersecurity, and technological competition, to avoid falling behind in the U.S.-China tech rivalry. Therefore, even if the short-term commercial returns from AI model training and inference have not yet fully covered costs, policy support and strategic subsidies may still sustain industry expansion. On the funding side, cloud and platform giants such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet rely on strong cash flows to support capital expenditures, while the sustainability of Meta Platforms and Oracle remains more controversial. Meanwhile, the market is beginning to pay attention to debt financing and valuation structures related to AI infrastructure—for example, companies like CoreWeave may face pressure between debt costs and growth expectations. Although the market has some concerns about potential bubbles surrounding “circular financing” and “order backflow” (e.g., long-term procurement agreements between cloud vendors and GPU supply chains), such as the capital闭环 structure between NVIDIA and AMD and downstream cloud vendors and new cloud service providers, historical experience shows that similar concerns often diverge or are corrected as performance is validated. Meanwhile, upstream semiconductor and optical communication supply chains—including storage and high-speed interconnects—are still considered to be in a phase of demand expansion rather than at the peak of a bubble. The current key market variables focus on three points: whether AI capital expenditures have peaked, whether there are risks of financing or demand chain transmission related to OpenAI, and whether the Federal Reserve will tighten liquidity prematurely due to trade-offs between inflation and growth. In the absence of clear turning point signals, the market generally believes the AI-driven capital expenditure cycle may continue for at least another medium-term phase.