Morgan Stanley hoãn đợt cắt giảm lãi suất đầu tiên đến cuối năm 2027 do lạm phát gia tăng

The Huoxing Finance report states that the U.S. April CPI increased by 3.8% year-over-year, the highest level since May 2023 and above the market expectation of 3.7%. Previously, on May 8, Bank of America economists stated in a report to clients that, due to persistent inflation pressures exceeding expectations and robust job growth, they had abandoned their earlier forecast of two 25-basis-point rate cuts in September and October this year, and pushed back the first rate cut to the second half of 2027. The previous outlook was based on the expectation that Trump would nominate Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell as Fed Chair, anticipating a more accommodative policy. However, with changes in economic conditions, this view has shifted. The report noted, “We no longer expect the Fed to cut rates this year.” They also pointed out that multiple shocks affecting the economy—including the Iran war, tariffs, and the rise of artificial intelligence—have made forecasting interest rate movements more difficult.